Flash Flood Warning 104, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 040014
FFSJKL
KYC011-040145-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
810 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BATH COUNTY IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA 
HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...RUNOFF FROM THE 
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. 

AT 725 PM...BATH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED THAT COW CREEK HAD RISEN 
OUT OF ITS BANKS THREE MILES WEST OF SALT LICK AND WAS BEGINNING TO 
LEVEL OFF. NO ROADS WERE REPORTED TO BE AFFECTED AT THAT TIME. ROSE 
RUN...SNEDIGAR BRANCH AND COW CREEK IN CENTRAL PARTS OF BATH COUNTY 
MAY STILL BE AFFECTED BY RUNOFF AND COULD STILL RISE AND CAUSE FLASH 
FLOODING.

ROADS...FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW 
LYING AREAS ARE STILL SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING DO NOT CROSS ANY 
LOW WATER CROSSINGS OR ANY OTHER WATER COVERED ROADWAY. 

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
PLEASE PASS YOUR FLOOD REPORTS TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

$$

JP

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 040141
FFSJKL
KYC011-040145-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
941 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR BATH COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

AS OF 935 PM...BATH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS THAT THE HIGH WATER 
ALONG COW CREEK FROM HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL THIS EVENING HAS RECEDED. 
NO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND THE THREAT 
FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN 
EFFECT FOR BATH COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
PLEASE PASS YOUR FLOOD REPORTS TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

$$

PELTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
510 PM FRI SEP 3 2004

.DISCUSSION...

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
STRETCHING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A WEST TO EAST
INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY IS
AGAIN FIRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTER OF THE STATE
WITH THESE DRIFTING INTO EAST KENTUCKY A BIT MORE THAN THEY DID
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A SLOW NORTHEAST MOVEMENT
TO THE CELLS THAT WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS...BUT SHOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING...
DESPITE PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES. SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLOUDY ON SATELLITE
WITH THE LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEING OVER RUN BY HIGHER CLOUDS AS HIGH MOISTURE AIR
STREAMS NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE OHIO VALLEY. READINGS
TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY BEFORE THE CLOUDS
AND DEVELOPING SHOWERS CAPPED THE HEATING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TWO MAIN FEATURES ALOFT
THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE UNITED STATES OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL PLOW THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. THE ETA HAS A SHARPER AND DEEPER TROUGH THAN THE GFS. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DAMPENS IT WILL TRY TO BUILD THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE WITH ONE PROBLEM...FRANCES. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE HURRICANE
ARE EXPECTED TO CHURN NORTHWEST THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH
BEFORE COMING NORTH AND MERGING WITH THE TROUGH BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH THEN SHIFTS NORTHEAST
THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT RIDGING FOR THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. LEANED MOST
HEAVILY TOWARD THE 12Z GFS SINCE IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND
MATCHES UP BEST WITH THE NHC AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR HURRICANE FRANCES.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER EVENING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ONLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE SEEN
TOWARDS DAWN IN THE VALLEYS AND ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT HAD RAIN
OR WHERE THE CLOUDS THIN. FOR SATURDAY EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER ANOTHER SIMILAR NIGHT
LEADING INTO SUNDAY WE SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE
AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF FRANCES CONTRIBUTING TO THE DRYING ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. GOING WITH THE
NHC FORECAST AND THE GFS FOR FRANCES...BRINGING IT IN MONDAY NIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERTAKE EAST
KENTUCKY FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE REMAINS OF
FRANCES MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT BETWEEN TWO AND
FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT IT WILL LIKELY FALL OVER A
LONG ENOUGH STRETCH OF TIME TO LIMIT CONCERNS FOR RIVER FLOODING.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE DEPENDING ON
HOW THE HEAVY RAIN SETS UP. OF COURSE...THIS ALL DEPENDS ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF HURRICANE FRANCES AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES THIS WAY.
EXPECT THE WEATHER TO QUIET DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.

MOS TEMPS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
DID NOT TOO STRAY FAR EXCEPT TO DROP THE VALLEYS A TAD MORE DUE TO
THE EXPECTED FOG THERE THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. PREFERRED THE WARMER
TEMPS FROM THE FWC FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXPECTING LESS
SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN THE GFS AND MESOETA ARE PORTRAYING. CARRIED A
SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE IN THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY....GENERALLY UNDERCUT MAV A BIT.

AS FOR IFPS/GFE GRIDS...USED MY USUAL PROCEDURE TO POPULATE THE
TEMP...DEW POINT AND WIND GRIDS FROM THE MESOETA THROUGH 60 HOURS.
HAD TO BRING UP TEMPS AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AS THE RAW MESOETA GRIDS
CAME IN WITH VERY SPECIFIC AREAS WHERE THE MAXES WERE RAIN COOLED.
THE REST OF THE GRIDS WERE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...JUST TWEAKED THE
MIDWEEK SKY...POP AND QPF ONES FOR THE LATEST THOUGHTS ON FRANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1010 AM FRI SEP 3 2004

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH STILL IN THE VICINITY FOR TODAY AS WELL AS
APPROACH OF WEAK S/W OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WARRANTING CURRENT 30
POP. HIGHER CLOUDS A BIT THINNER THAN YESTERDAY AND TEMPS HAVE
RESPONDED BETTER. CURRENT FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE AND WILL ONLY
REMOVE THE MORNING FOG.

534 AM FRI SEP 3 2004

CURRENT SFC FEATURES INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING THROUGH PART
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGH CLOUDS WORKING IN FROM THE SW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VORT LOBE AND WEAK JET MAX ROTATING IN AROUND
WESTERN FLANK OF UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. FEEL THIS...IN ADDITION TO
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT LOW...WARRANTS 30 POPS TODAY...SHOOTING
ABOVE MAV AND FWC MOS...BELOW MET. CLOUDS SHOULDNT BE AS LARGE OF A
TEMP FACTOR TODAY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...BUT NOTHING TO IGNORE.
THINK WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER MET MAX
TEMPS...SO SHOT SLIGHTLY UNDER MAV HIGHS FOR TODAY. STUCK PRETTY
CLOSE TO MAV TEMPS THROUGH REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM THEN. LOWER POPS
FOR TOMORROW...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE...AS LIFTING MECHANISMS A LITTLE
HARDER TO COME BY. LAYER RH DWINDLES BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH A LITTLE
MORE ACTIVE SFC RIDGING. LEFT SUNDAY DRY...AND ELIMINATED SUNDAY
NIGHT POPS IN THE SOUTH.

FOR MONDAY TEMPS...CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND TO UNDERCUT
MOS...BUT DID BUMP UP THE VALUES A LITTLE BIT AS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
FRANCES EFFECTS ON TEMPS MAY HOLD OFF WILL A LITTLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO RAN WITH THE LOWER TEMPS SOUTH MONDAY WITH CLOUDS
WORKING IN FROM THAT DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND OF POPS...AND TRIED TO
LEND A LITTLE MORE FOCUS TO FRANCES EFFECTS...TUES AND TUES NIGHT.
ONLY UP TO 50 POPS FOR THE TIME BEING THOUGH. THOUGHT IT BEST TO
LEAVE TO THE DAY SHIFT TO MAKE ANY BIG LEAPS. 00Z GFS BEGINNING TO
COME INTO MUCH BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH PREVIOUS HPC THINKING ON TRACK
OF FRANCES...SEE YESTERDAY MORNINGS AFDJKL DISCUSSION.

1042 PM THU SEP 2 2004

INVERTED TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED MORE TO OUR NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH
THE AXIS OF THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  HAVE STABILIZED ACROSS THE AREA SO DROPPED MENTION OF
TS...AND JUST LEFT SLT CHC OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES...AND NO MENTION OF SHRA IN THE EAST.  ALSO...UPPED TEMPS A
CAT IN THE WEST WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS/CONSTANT FEED OF MOISTURE AND
LEFT TEMPS AS IS IN THE EAST.  ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG.  UPDATED
FORECAST PACKAGE ON ITS WAY OUT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
619 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-041201-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
619 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND ON LABOR
DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES
TRACK...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PIEPER