Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 021424
FFSJKL
KYC125-021530-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1023 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAUREL COUNTY IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 1130 AM EDT...

MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OFF TO THE SOUTH AND 
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN LAUREL COUNTY BETWEEN 10:30 AND 
11:30 AM. AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED THE HEAVIEST RAIN INCLUDING 
HELLARD BRANCH AND LAUREL BRANCH IN BETWEEN INTERSTATE 75 AND 
HIGHWAY 490...WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO 
FLASH FLOODING.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ROADS...FARMLANDS 
ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE 
SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
PLEASE PASS YOUR FLOOD REPORTS TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

$$

GEOGERIAN

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 021520
FFSJKL
KYC125-021530-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1120 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LAUREL COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 
AM...

HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE HAS NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF ANY ONGOING FLASH FLOODING. 
THEREFORE...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
PLEASE PASS YOUR FLOOD REPORTS TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
512 AM THU SEP 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...

POPS IN THE FIRST PERIOD WERE INTRODUCED EARLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
AS ONGOING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC
INFLECTION EXTENDING THROUGH FAR E KY...AND SW INTO CENTRAL TENN IS
ALREADY IN PLAY. SFC FEATURE WASHES OUT TOWARDS THE NE INTO RIDGE.
AS IS IN PREVIOUS FULL PACKAGE DISCUSSION...THIS NE RIDGE...AND
MOISTURE SOURCE TO THE S AND SE...WILL MEAN BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACTIVITY IN SW COUNTIES TODAY. ALTERED POP GRIDS A BIT FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...AND EXPANDING THE AREA OF 40 POP IN THE SW. OVERALL MID LEVEL
THERMAL CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH 850 TEMPS EXPECTED A
BIT HIGHER...BUT WITH MORE SKY CVR POSSIBLE...WENT ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER FOR TODAY THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.

CHANGES TO POPS AND TEMPS BEYOND TONIGHT WERE VERY MINIMAL. STILL
EXPECT MOISTURE FEED...BUT WITH NO NOTABLE FORCING FORESEEN...AS
S/W FRIDAY TIMING LOOKS OFF...AND NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF A
MECHANISM SAT EITHER. STAYED PRIMARILY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE BOTH DAYS.

CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED. UPPED POPS TO DIFFERING DEGREES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. NHC FORECASTED PATH FOR FRANCES
BRINGS HER AS FAR WEST AS WEST CENTRAL GA BY MONDAY EVENING. MODELS
IN GENERAL DISARRAY OVER THE SOLUTION. THE NHC NOTED THAT DROPSONDES
RELEASED AROUND FRANCES APPEAR ABOUT 20M TOO LOW COMPARED TO 18Z UPR
AIR DATA. THIS COULD MEAN THAT THE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE SYS IS
PROGGED AS TOO WEAK AND ALLOWING THE SYS TO MAKE MORE OF A TURN TO
THE RIGHT THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH
THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET SOLUTIONS...WHICH BOTH FEATURE A MORE ROBUST
RIDGING...AND A RESULTANT TRACK FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS. A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND THE UKMET WITH A STRONG LEAN TOWARDS THE UKMET AS IT
HANDLES THE RIDGE BETTER...LOOKS TO BE MOST REALISTIC THOUGH...AS
THE ECMWF GOES A LITTLE BONKERS WITH THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF
FRANCES. ALL OF THIS SAID...UPPED POPS WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BETTER CHANCE FOR THE REMNANTS OF FRANCIS TO PASS CLOSE TO THE AREA.
AS THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT
THOUGH...ONLY ELECTED TO MAX THE POPS OUT AT 40. ALSO...DROPPED
TEMPS A BIT EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1035 PM WED SEP 1 2004

0Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY UP INTO SW
VIRGINIA. A SW/V ENTERING THE TN VALLEY THAT IS ROTATING AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SEEMS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION OVER SE TN
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH TO OUR SE. MOISTURE IS ALSO
INCREASING FROM THE S WITH LOW AND MID CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND INTO TN AND SW VA. MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION IS THIN CIRRUS. CONVECTION THAT HAS TRIED
TO WORK NW HAS RUN INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION AND DIED
OFF.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION NOW OVER NE TN SHOULD DIE
OFF AND ONLY BRING DEBRIS CLOUDS INTO THE AREA NEAR THE CONFLUENCE
OF VA/TN/KY. OVERALL...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
OVER THE SW COUNTIES...AS SOME LOW AND MID CLOUDS MOVE IN OR DEVELOP
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND SW/V APPROACHING. RATHER CLEAR SKIES
NOW OVER THE REGION AND CURRENT RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
THE LEAST CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND HIT THE FOG
HARDER THERE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER AND
HOURLY TEMPS...BRINGING THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS A LITTLE LATER AND
ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

518 PM WED SEP 1 2004

FOR THE PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR FROM THE SOUTH. WHAT IS LEFT OF OUR LAST FRONT IS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70 ON THE OTHER SIDE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER EAST TN AND WEST NC. MODELS BRING
THE FRONT NORTH ON THURSDAY...WITH THE ETA AND GFS BOTH INDICATING
THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WESTERN AREAS WILL
BE LESS AFFECTED BY WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL BE PRESENT...AND
WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...SO THE MOISTURE SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. MOS NUMBERS VARY
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT ALL GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHER POPS WEST.
WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE GFS MOS POPS...WHICH ARE LOWEST...BUT ALSO
OFFER THE BEST CONSISTENCY WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST BY ONLY
REQUIRING A MODEST RISE IN POPS. IF POPS CONTINUE AN UPWARD TREND IN
LATER RUNS...IT WOULD NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LATER FORECASTS.

ONCE INTO THE NEW AIR MASS...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE AN ALMOST
EVER PRESENT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. AN UPPER JET IMPULSE
COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE SUPPORT ON FRIDAY.

FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

GFS FORECASTS 5H RIDGE AXIS TO BEGIN SHIFTING EAST ON SATURDAY...AS
UPPER LVL LOW KICKS OUT OF DEEP TROF OVR THE CNTRL ROCKIES. TROF
GRADUALLY KICKS OUT ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS SUN INTO MON...WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVR WISCONSIN AT THAT TIME...AND FRNTL BOUNDARY TRAILING S
ACRS UPR MISS VALLEY.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF HCN FRANCES ON DAY 7 PROVIDES
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED. THE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION
WOULD TAKE THE STORM CENTER JUST EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ON A NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH VA AND WVA TUE INTO WED.
THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR GOOD EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN MINIMAL PRECIPITATION. A TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST...
HOWEVER...COULD MEAN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. APPROACHING UPR LVL TROF WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON
FRANCES MOVEMENT. TOO EARLY YET TO TELL WHAT THAT AFFECT MIGHT BE.
ALL BEING SAID...DECIDED TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...THOUGH DID
RAISE TO CHANCE ON TUESDAY. AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE ULTIMATE MOVEMENT
WILL BE EVEN FURTHER EAST THAN PRESENTLY FORECAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AND SEE HOW TRACK IS ADJUSTED OVER NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAX TEMPS WERE KEPT A TAD WARMER THEN MEX GUIDANCE. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

400 AM WED SEP 1 2004

CURRENTLY UNDER HIGH PRESS AND WITH TRAPPED LLVL MOISTURE...VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN BE THE MAJOR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV TEMPS AS THEY WERE RIGHT ON YESTERDAY.

OTHERWISE...MAJOR AREA OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK OF HUR
FRANCES. EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE ERN FL COAST SOMETIME
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT AS FRANCES
MAKES HER WAY NORTH FROM JAX THRU CAE TO CRW AND BUF. HIGH PRESS OFF
NEW ENG WILL HELP KEEP FRANCES INLAND. BY TUE MORN ERN KY WILL BE
FEELING THE EFFECTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE MTNS.
THIS WEEKEND MAY SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND A RAIN
SHADOW. FRANCES WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTH UNTIL MONDAY TO BRING ENUF
ENERGY ACROSS THE MTNS TO HAVE MUCH CHANCE FOR RAIN. HOWEVER THIS IS
A MAJOR CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE A
COUPLE MORE RUNS ON THE MODELS TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE.

REST OF THE FCST HAD ONLY MINOR TWEAKS AND BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

PIEPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
545 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031201-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
545 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT
ANY STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PIEPER