Tornado Warning 88, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

...RAINY WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE SOAKED SOILS...

.CURRENTLY....A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH CENTRAL GA. MSAS ANALYSIS AND MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
SECOND BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE JAX COASTAL WATERS TOWARD
APALACHEE BAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND...
WHILE CAT 4 HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES TO PRESS WNW JUST SOUTH OF
CENTRAL JAMAICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP MOISTURE PLUM
EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DOWN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...ON
THE EAST SIDE OF JET MAX. LOCALLY...MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING INLAND OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES DUE TO LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUE FURTHER INLAND.

.SHORT TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS WILL LINGER TODAY AND
AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN
BEING UN-NEEDED RAINFALL. EASTERLY MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE THE GREATEST CHC OF PRECIP ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...
THEN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT FURTHER INLAND OVER INTERIOR
GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTN. SLOW MOVING...MOISTURE
LADEN SHOWERS AND AFTN TSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 2-3
INCHES LOCALLY AS OUTFLOWS INTERACT WITH SFC FRONTS UNDER GOOD UPR
LVL DIVERGENCE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AND
HWO.

SUN...EAST COAST MORNING RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS TODAY DUE
TO A BRIEF BREAK IN UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE AND LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING
MORE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL NOT MAXIMIZE COASTAL CONVERGENCE.
UNFORTUNATELY BY AFTN DIVERGENCE AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL WORK OVER THE AREA ABOVE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHICH
AGAIN WARRANTS HIGH END SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY POPS.  PLAN TO
HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST...BUT STORMS WILL MOVE A BIT
FASTER DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF IVAN.

MONDAY...AS IVAN APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST GOMEX AND THE FL KEYS...
WE WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE SOME OF HIS FRINGE CONVECTION AS IT
ROTATES NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. WILL GO FOR LIKELY POPS
AREAWIDE STARTING MONDAY AFTN...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW
CLIMO SINCE WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) WILL DOMINATE IN THE LOW LEVELS
DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMO DUE TO PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WAA.
WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND SUN MORNING DUE TO ABUNDANT
GROUND MOISTURE...BUT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING ELY FLOW ABOVE THE
SFC SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION.

.LONG TERM...BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...IVAN WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE BULK OF THE JAX FORECAST AREA ON THE DREADED RIGHT SIDE OF
THE STORM. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...AND
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH GA. AS WAS THE CASE WITH FRANCES...A SFC FRONT WILL
TRAIL IVAN AND LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTN CONVECTION THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...IN THE SHORT TERM MARINE AREAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY
EASTERLY FLOW ON SOUTH SIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD KEEP SEAS
IN THE 3-4 FOOT RANGE TODAY AND SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY...FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXACT TRACK OF IVAN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 85 70 86 70 / 60 30 50 40
SSI 83 74 82 74 / 60 40 60 40
JAX 86 73 85 72 / 60 40 60 40
SGJ 84 75 84 76 / 60 40 50 40
GNV 86 71 87 71 / 60 40 60 30
OCF 88 72 88 71 / 60 30 50 30
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...ENYEDI
MARINE/FIRE WX...CAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
540 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-121000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLAY-
CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-
MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
540 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SOUTH GEORGIA...

...SEVERAL RIVERS CONTINUE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES....

...MORE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY...

SEVERAL COUNTIES HAVE AREAS THAT ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING DUE TO
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...THEREFORE AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

IN ADDITION...SOME AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD. SEE THE LATEST
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE NEAR
AND AFTER THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE RIP CURRENTS
ARE RELATIVELY NARROW...YOU CAN ESCAPE THE FLOW BY SWIMMING PARALLEL
TO THE SHORE UNTIL YOU BREAK FREE...THEN SWIM DIAGONALLY TOWARD THE
SHORE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE COMBINATION OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A MOIST
AIRMASS...AND SLOW STORM MOTION WILL POSE THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO
EVEN 3 INCHES...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND INTERIOR GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
PLEASE RELAY FLOODING REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS SOON
AS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY...

...AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...

...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY...

...VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

ADDITIONAL RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT...THEREFORE THE ABOVE
NORMAL CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MODERATE
RISK...THEN INCREASING TO HIGH RISK AS HURRICANE IVAN APPROACHES LATE
MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS.

DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST TO BE OVER A PORTION OF NORTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT MUST BE REMEMBERED THAT
THIS IS AN OUTLOOK...AND ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
CAN BE AS MUCH AS 400 MILES. WHILE IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE STORM
WILL ULTIMATELY POSE A THREAT TO THE REGION...AT THIS TIME IT WOULD
BE PRUDENT FOR LOCAL INTERESTS TO TAKE REASONABLE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD
THE STORM BECOME A THREAT.

SOME SUGGESTED ACTIONS...
REVIEW YOUR FAMILYS HURRICANE PLAN. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD REVIEW
THEIR HURRICANE PLANS.

IF THE STORM APPROACHES THE REGION...HIGH TIDES...HEAVY SURF...RIP
CURRENTS AND LARGE BREAKERS AT INLETS MAY DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE
STORM. BEACHFRONT INTERESTS SHOULD PLAN ON SECURING OBJECTS
VULNERABLE TO SURF ACTION PRIOR TO THE HIGH SURF DEVELOPING. HIGH
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN AND COULD RE-INTRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ACROSS THE REGION.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH
YOUR AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED...PLEASE RELAY ANY
REPORTS OF FLOODING OR DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI