Tornado Warning 51, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2004

...FRANCES OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS OVER THE NE GULF...AROUND
150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA...MOVING WNW 10 MPH. A TURN TO
THE NW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME STRENGTHENING EXPECTED
AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF. THE MAIN CONCERN...RAIN BANDS THAT ARE
ROTATING AROUND FRANCES PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND GUSTS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THEN AS FRANCES MOVES OFF TO THE NW SOME GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE RAIN BANDS WITH
TROPICAL FORCE WIND GUSTS STILL VERY POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF JAX
AND OUT TOWARDS GULF AS FRANCES POSSIBLY STRENGTHENS. AS FOR POPS...
CATEGORICAL TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN WILL TAPER OFF TO LIKELY TUESDAY
AND NEAR CLIMO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAVE BEEN ALREADY DOPPLER RADAR PCP
ESTIMATES OF UP TO 8 INCHES IN NE FL (USING THE TROPICAL Z-R
RELATIONSHIP.) NEARLY 4 INCHES AT NWS JAX SINCE YESTERDAY AND NEARLY
5 INCHES AT GAINESVILLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL PREVIOUS WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE/REISSUE ANYTHING UNTIL THE NEXT NHC
CONFERENCE CALL.
&&

.MARINE...FREQUENT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER THE WATERS
WITH SEAS AT 10 FEET AT GRAYS REEF AND 19 FEET AT THE ST AUGUSTINE
BUOY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS TODAY WITH
WINDS VEERING AND DECREASING TONIGHT (BUT STILL SCA CONDITIONS).
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 83 73 84 73 / 99 99 80 50
SSI 83 78 84 77 / 90 80 70 50
JAX 84 75 85 75 / 99 80 70 50
SGJ 84 79 88 76 / 90 70 60 40
GNV 85 74 86 73 / 99 90 70 40
OCF 84 74 85 73 / 99 80 70 40
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NE FL COAST.
     INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING INTERIOR NE FL.
     FLOOD WATCH NE FL.
GA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING SE GA COAST.
     WIND ADVISORY INTERIOR SE GA.
     FLOOD WATCH SE GA.
&&

PP/JH/ACS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 5 2004

GAZ132>136-149>152-162>164-060000-
APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-
JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE-
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 5 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM FOR EXTREME SOUTH GEORGIA...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA...

THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM FRANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DEPEND ON THE EXACT MOTION OF
FRANCES...BUT AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE. LANDFALLING TROPICAL SYSTEMS OFTEN PRODUCE
ISOLATED TORNADOES NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF MOTION. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA. SEE THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY
PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO FRANCES. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. RAINFALL WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED BY MID-WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IN THE TORNADO WATCH AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREAS. ADDITIONAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED
LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL/ZIBURA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TROPICAL STORM   6 NE NEWBERRY           29.71N 82.54W
09/05/2004                   ALACHUA            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** 61 ONE YEAR OLD WOMEN KILLED WHEN A TREE
            TOPPLED ONTO HER MOBILE HOME. 4 PERSONS WERE IN HOME WHEN
            THE TREE FELL. ALACHUA COUNTY EMA RECEIVED THE REPORT AT
            1919 EDT. GAINESVILLE AIRPORT REPORTED WINDS 060 DEGREES
            32 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 41 KNOTES AT 1909 EDT.

1200 PM     TROPICAL STORM   MICANOPY                29.51N 82.28W
09/05/2004                   ALACHUA            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL *** 28 YEAR OLD MALE LOST CONTROL OF HIS
            VEHICLE WHILE NORTHBOUND ON INTERSTATE 75. VEHICLE
            HYDROPLANNED AND SKIDDED INTO A WOODED AREA WRAPPING THE
            VEHICLE AROUND TREES. GNV OBSERVATION AT 1200 EDT WINDS
            050 DEGREES 21 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS. VISIBILITY 7
            MILES IN LIGHT RAIN.

&&

SANDRIK