Tornado Warning 14, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD IS HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED
FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH SECOND CONCERN BEING THE WIND
EFFECTS FROM CHARLEY...WHICH DEPENDS ON FINAL TRACK AND INTENSITY.
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 6 AM WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR SOME AREAS UNTIL CHARLEY EXITS THE REGION. WE
WILL DELAY ISSUANCE OF THE AFTERNOON MARINE AND ZONE FORECASTS IN
ORDER TO INCLUDE MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON HRCN CHARLEY.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES THROUGH NORTH GA TO SE MS. A UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT PUSHING
THE FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. ALSO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WILL MERGE
WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. PREVIOUS POPS WERE GOOD
AND ONLY TWEAKED A LITTLE BIT. POPS ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ARE
CATEGORICAL FOR SRN AND ERN SECTIONS...TAPERING TO 60% IN NW. AFTER
MIDNIGHT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO WEST AND SOUTH SECTIONS. POPS
REMAIN 40-60% ON SATURDAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS REGION...AND
TAD LOWER ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH MID 80S FRI/SAT DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
OLD BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AND AFTN/EVNG CONVECTION WILL REIGN.
&&

.MARINE...ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING
THEN INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH APPROACH OF HRCN CHARLEY.
CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE DOWN BELOW SCA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 85 68 86 / 70 70 60 50
SSI 75 85 74 84 / 60 80 80 70
JAX 73 86 72 86 / 60 80 90 60
SGJ 75 86 74 86 / 50 80 90 60
GNV 73 85 70 87 / 40 80 90 60
OCF 73 86 71 87 / 40 80 90 60
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM.
     WIND ADVISORY FLZ020>022-035-GAZ150 THIS AFTERNOON
     AND EVENING.
     SCA FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH OUT 60 NM.
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM.
     WIND ADVISORY GAZ132>135-149 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
     SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH OUT 60 NM.
&&

TRABERT/ENYEDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-130100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
230 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR ENTIRE AREA...
...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR ENTIRE AREA...
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON...

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF BONNIE WILL MERGE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION. THE MERGE
OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY REGION OF NORTH FLORIDA AND PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS BONNIE TRACKS NORTHEAST AND MOVES
FURTHER INLAND. STRONG ROTATION WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE RIP CURRENT RISK. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY...

HURRICANE CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ASHORE THE WEST FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA BAY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS
IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...REACHING NORTHEAST
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA. CHARLEY IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT. IT MUST BE REMEMBERED THAT
ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORECAST CAN BE AS MUCH AS 300 MILES.

WHILE THE STORMS LOCAL IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDANT UPON ITS EXACT TRACK...AT THIS TIME...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT
FOR LOCAL INTERESTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TO TAKE REASONABLE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY.

SOME SUGGESTED ACTIONS...
HEED THE ADVICE OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.
REVIEW YOUR FAMILYS HURRICANE PLAN.
ENSURE YOUR HURRICANE KIT IS WELL STOCKED AND UP TO DATE.
REVIEW THE WORKING CONDITION OF EMERGENCY EQUIPMENT...SUCH AS
FLASHLIGHTS AND BATTERY POWERED RADIOS.
MARINE INTERESTS MAY WISH TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AT THIS TIME...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU WILL BE AWAY FROM YOUR BOAT.

AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE REGION...HIGH TIDES...HEAVY SURF...RIP
CURRENTS AND LARGE BREAKERS AT INLETS MAY DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE
STORM. BEACH-FRONT INTERESTS SHOULD PLAN ON SECURING OBJECTS
VULNERABLE TO SURF ACTION PRIOR TO THE HIGH SURF DEVELOPING.

LOCAL AND MARINE INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND LOCAL MEDIA ON THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR
DETAILED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ECZ/MKT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

GAZ150-164-121845-
CHARLTON GA-WARE GA-
219 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLTON AND WARE
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 219 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FOLKSTON...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STEVEN FOSTER STATE PARK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND HOMELAND...FOLKSTON...WINOKUR AND RACE POND
THROUGH 245 PM EDT. DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

FLZ040-121845-
MARION FL-
222 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 222 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OCALA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND OCALA...ANTHONY...
SPARR...BURBANK...FORT MCCOY...CITRA...ORANGE SPRINGS AND HOG VALLEY
THROUGH 245 PM EDT. DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

FLZ036-040-121900-
ALACHUA FL-MARION FL-
228 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALACHUA AND MARION
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 228 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALACHUA TO 17 MILES SOUTH OF ARCHER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND ARCHER...ALACHUA...FLEMINGTON...LA
CROSSE...WORTHINGTON SPRINGS...GAINESVILLE...MICANOPY AND
GAINESVILLE AIRPORT THROUGH 300 PM EDT. DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
239 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

FLZ032-036-037-121915-
ALACHUA FL-CLAY FL-PUTNAM FL-
239 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALACHUA...CLAY AND
PUTNAM COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...

AT 239 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JOHNSON...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTH OF CITRA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND JOHNSON...MELROSE...INTERLACHEN...MANNVILLE...PUTNAM
HALL...FLORAHOME AND CARRAWAY THROUGH 315 PM EDT. DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
243 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

FLZ020-GAZ162-121915-
ECHOLS GA-HAMILTON FL-
243 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAMILTON AND
ECHOLS COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...

AT 243 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
JENNINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND STATENVILLE AND JENNINGS
THROUGH 315 PM EDT. DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

FLZ032-037-121930-
CLAY FL-PUTNAM FL-
255 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLAY AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 255 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
INTERLACHEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PUTNAM HALL...
MANNVILLE...INTERLACHEN...FLORAHOME...CARRAWAY...PENNEY
FARMS...ASBURY LAKE AND GREEN COVE SPRINGS THROUGH 330 PM EDT.
DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

HESS