Tornado Warning 111, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

...TROPICAL STORM JEANNE CONTINUES TO LASH THE AREA...

.SHORT TERM...TROPICAL STORM JEANNE SHOWING SHE STILL HAS QUITE A
PUNCH ACROSS THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AND SOME AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLOSEST
TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ELSEWHERE...GUSTS OVER TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ARE A COMMON OCCURRENCE. GETTING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...AS SATURATED SOILS ARE AIDING IN THE LOSS OF
TREES IN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ARE ALSO GETTING THE EXPECTED
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING RIVER FLOODING...AREAL
FLOODING...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. COMBAT THIS WITH THE FACT THAT WE
ARE LOOKING AT A HIGH TIDE WITH WATERS ENCROACHING ON SOME COASTAL
ROADWAYS...AND IT LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE A VERY BUSY EVENING.

THE MOST IMMINENT IMPACTS LOOK TO BE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL AND
TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN BANDS STREAMING OFF THE ATLANTIC.
FORTUNATELY...FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE NIGHT...THE INSTABILITY
AXIS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE TORNADOES
HAVE ADVECTED FROM THERE AND DISSIPATED QUICKLY INLAND. LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE...AND EXPECT
TORNADO THREAT TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE NIGHT...FOLLOWING THE HELICITY AXIS. GIVEN CURRENT SHEAR
VALUES...IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR CURRENT INLAND INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT SHEAR VALUES.

WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE FLOOD THREAT WITH AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS...
AND THESE ARE CURRENTLY POSTED FOR MOST ALL OF THE FLORIDA ZONES...
AND MAY BE REQUIRED FURTHER NORTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT WARNINGS STILL LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE...PENDING ANY DECISIONS
MADE IN THE UPCOMING NHC CONFERENCE CALL. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE
NEEDED REGARDLESS TO ACCOUNT FOR DRY SLOT ROTATING AROUND JEANNE
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. WILL CARRY MORE OF A TRANSITION IN THE POPS...
WITH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES BECOMING MORE SCATTERED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...AGAIN...WARNINGS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW AND FORECAST IS
LARGELY REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS. FEW CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH.
     INLAND TS WIND WARNING INTERIOR NE FL.
     TORNADO WATCH ALL BUT MARION COUNTY.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
GA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
     INLAND TS WIND WARNING INTERIOR SE GA.
     TORNADO WATCH ALL ZONES.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON MONDAY.
&&

TRABERT/ZIBURA/DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
436 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-271000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
436 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO
   FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA...
...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR ALACHUA...BAKER...
   BRADFORD...CLAY...COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...SUWANNEE...
   UNION...PUTNAM AND MARION COUNTIES...
...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR APPLING...ATKINSON...
   BACON...BRANTLEY...CHARLTON...CLINCH...COFFEE...ECHOLS...JEFF
   DAVIS...PIERCE...WARE AND WAYNE COUNTIES...
...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TODAY FOR A LARGE PART OF
   NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
   AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
...FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...SEVERAL RIVERS STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSONVILLE FOR DETAILS ON
IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM JEANNE.

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO SOUTH
GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING AND EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING IN
ADDITION TO MORE HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP/MKT/JTD