Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT OVER FL
PENINSULA IS GRADUALLY BEING REPLACED BY MOIST TROPICAL AIR. A
MOISTURE PLUME IS STREAMING FROM MEXICO TO FL PANHANDLE AND ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ARE TRAVELING EWD FROM
LA INTO GA. A COMPLEX OF STORMS EXPLODED LAST HOUR AS A SWD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MET THE SEABREEZE IN DUVAL COUNTY PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL BRING MORE PERIODS OF STORMS
INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THU/FRI PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP 30-40% POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND MAX TEMPS
AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING NWD OVER THE WEEKEND. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RETAIN MUCH OF
THE MOISTURE ALLOWING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL PATTERN OF
AFTN/EVNG THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.MARINE...COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A STALLED
FRONT TO THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WITH
SEABREEZE NEAR SHORE DURING THE DAY. NOCTURNAL SURGES AT NIGHT
PRODUCING SCEC IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. RIDGE MOVES BACK NORTH BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OFFSHORE.
&&

.FIRE WX...NO HEADLINES. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 68 88 69 90 / 40 40 20 40
SSI 71 86 73 87 / 50 40 20 40
JAX 71 90 70 90 / 40 40 20 40
SGJ 72 87 72 87 / 20 40 20 40
GNV 70 91 69 91 / 20 40 20 50
OCF 70 92 70 91 / 20 30 20 40
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

MKT/PP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-020000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COVERS THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTH AND FOR MARION COUNTY IN THE
SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR COUNTIES IN THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

TRABERT/ARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
135 PM EDT TUE JUN 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 PM     HAIL             ARLINGTON               30.34N 81.60W
06/01/2004  1.75 INCH        DUVAL              FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6-7 MINUTE DURATION IN THE BEACON HILLS...QUEENS HARBOR
            AND HIDDEN HILLS AREAS. HAIL SIZES RANGED FROM NICKEL TO
            GOLF BALL SIZE.

&&

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

FLZ020-021-011930-
HAMILTON FL-SUWANNEE FL-
250 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUWANNEE AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL
330 PM EDT...

AT 250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 16 MILES WEST OF SUWANNEE RIVER STATE
PARK...OR ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTH OF MADISON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SUWANNEE RIVER
STATE PARK...CROSSROADS...SUWANNEE SPRINGS AND JASPER THROUGH 330 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. IF THIS STORM RETAINS ITS STRENGTH...A WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
356 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

FLZ020-022-012045-
COLUMBIA FL-HAMILTON FL-
356 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COLUMBIA AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID
UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 356 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JASPER
EXTENDING INTO RURAL SECTIONS OF NORTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND JASPER...GENOA AND RURAL NORTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
358 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

GAZ162-163-012045-
CLINCH GA-ECHOLS GA-
358 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLINCH AND ECHOLS
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL
445 PM EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTH OF VALDOSTA AND ANOTHER
NEAR STOCKTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND MAYDAY...HOMERVILLE AND DU PONT THROUGH
445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
404 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

FLZ023-012045-
BAKER FL-
404 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BAKER COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 404 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 9 MILES WEST OF TAYLOR...OR ABOUT 16
MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARGO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND TAYLOR AND THE NORTHERN
OSCEOLA NATIONAL FOREST THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
425 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

GAZ166-012100-
COASTAL CAMDEN GA-
425 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAMDEN COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTH OF KINGS BAY BASE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS
AROUND KINGS BAY BASE...DUNGENESS...CUMBERLAND ISLAND AND HIGH POINT
THROUGH 500 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

CARROLL