Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2004

.SHORT TERM...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS HAS NOW PUSHED A BIT SE OF
THE CWA (COUNTY WARNING AREA). SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAS OCCURRED PER
12Z KJAX SOUNDING AND H2O VAPOR LOOP. HOWEVER...MORE MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES MOVING SE FROM UPSTREAM. AT THE SFC...CU FIELD SLOW TO
DEVELOP...WITH MOST CU OVER S TIER AND NW ZONES. ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO MARION COUNTY AND POINTS S WITH
MUCH LESS COVERAGE THAN THU AND WEAKER THUS FAR.

THIS EVENING...EXPECT GREATEST TSTM COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF
A KSGJ TO KGNV LINE. IN ADDITION...A WK SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO SE GA BY SUNSET...WITH A POSSIBLY TEMPORARY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THAT AREA AS WELL.

SAT...MODELS PUSH A RATHER POTENT 500 MB VORT MAX ACROSS GA LATE IN
THE DAY. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE A WHOLESALE INCREASE IN POPS VS
TODAY. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS REVOLVE AROUND RESULTING LOW-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. GFS STILL INSISTS
THAT A 1006 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS N OR CENTRAL GA...WITH ETA
SHOWING WEAKER LOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER N. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...SO WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD ETA
FEATURES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS 850 MB WINDS AND LESS SEVERITY
OF STORMS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE STRONG OVER N GA ZONES
AND SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.

SUN...MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AVAILABLE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF...
BUT TIMING BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT. WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS
FOR ENTIRE AREA.

.LONG TERM...GFS STILL DEPICTING MID-LEVEL DRYING (ESP OVER N 2/3 OF
THE AREA) EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHO UPPER TROF DAMPENS BY MID TO LATE
WEEK...MOISTURE RETURNS ENUF FOR NEAR CLIMO POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AS TROF WEAKENS...ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT NOT QUITE AS STRONG OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT SO DO
NOT EXPECT AS STRONG OF A NOCTURNAL SURGE. WENT CLOSE TO ETA FOR
WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS GFS APPEARS WAY TO STRONG
DUE TO FEEDBACK ISSUES. HOWEVER...MODELS DO AGREE ON OFFSHORE AREAS
APPROACHING SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 88 71 89 / 10 60 50 50
SSI 75 85 74 86 / 10 50 50 50
JAX 72 88 72 90 / 20 60 50 50
SGJ 74 84 74 86 / 20 60 50 40
GNV 72 88 72 88 / 30 60 50 50
OCF 72 87 72 87 / 30 60 40 40
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

CARROLL/CAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1215 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-171000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1215 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
TODAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. STORMS WILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 20 MPH. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS
THAN ON THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ARS/SEC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
632 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2004

FLZ021-022-035-036-162330-
ALACHUA FL-COLUMBIA FL-GILCHRIST FL-SUWANNEE FL-
632 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME NORTHWEST
ALACHUA...SOUTHERN SUWANNEE...SOUTHERN COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN
GILCHRIST COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID
UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 632 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTH OF FORT
WHITE...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS STATE...
MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND OLENO STATE PARK...HIGH SPRINGS...FORT
WHITE...ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS STATE...HILDRETH AND COLUMBIA THROUGH
730 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

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