Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

.CURRENTLY...STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS THE E 1/2 OF THE
AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FIRING IN RESPONSE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGH
INSTABILITY...A VORTICITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FL
TO THE N CENTRAL GOMEX (WITH INDIVIDUAL VORT MAXES MOVING ALONG
IT)... AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. 500 MB TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
UPSTREAM TO AROUND -9C AND LIS ARE APPROACHING -10. ONLY NVA
(NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION) NW OF THE AREA IS PREVENTING TSTMS
FROM ERUPTING...BUT ISOLD CONVECTION OVER SE AL AND OUR N GA ZONES
MAY BE SIGN OF MORE EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF
SFC FRONT.

.SHORT TERM...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF DYNAMICS WILL
REDUCE POPS THIS EVENING...ALTHO SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS S
ZONES. IN ADDITION...ANY OUTFLOWS INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER
REMAINDER OF ZONES MAY KEEP CONVECTION GOING LATE IF IT CAN DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THRU EVENING OVER MOST ZONES AND
DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THIS TOWARD PRESS TIME.

FRI...LACK OF ORGANIZED PVA WILL LEAD TO LESS BUT MORE UNIFORM
COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTN TSTMS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST IS CONTINGENT ON
NO IMPULSES MOVING RAPIDLY SE ON BACKSIDE OF ABNORMALLY DEEP ATLC
TROF. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
FCST. MAV MOS SHOWS VERY HIGH POPS...WITH MORE THAN 80% ACROSS S
ZONES. THINK THIS IS OVERDONE...BUT ALSO DONT BUY LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT POPS IN ETA. SO...WILL USE GFS PRECIP FIELD BUT SCALE
BACK ROUGHLY 20%. THANX FOR COORD MLB/TBW

SAT...MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH GFS DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT SFC
LOW NR KATL. NO SUCH DEVELOPMENT IN ETA SUITE. HOWEVER...MOS NUMBERS
CLOSE SO WILL GENERALLY BLEND WITH ROUGHLY 60% AREA-WIDE.

.LONG TERM...GRADUALLY REDUCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD AS GFS INDICATES
MORE MID-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS AND PATTERN DAMPENS SOMEWHAT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE TONIGHT WITH SCEC NEEDED. NOT MUCH
CHANGE TO REMAINDER OF FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 94 72 89 / 30 30 20 60
SSI 75 90 76 88 / 40 30 20 60
JAX 73 92 73 90 / 40 40 30 60
SGJ 75 91 75 90 / 40 50 30 60
GNV 72 90 72 88 / 30 50 40 60
OCF 72 89 72 88 / 30 50 40 50
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

CARROLL/CAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151600-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
930 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS LATE THIS MORNING WITH
THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE.  BEST CHANCES MAINLY IN THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. STORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO 2 INCHES OR MORE.

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 105 DEGREES IN AREAS THAT DO NOT GET EARLY
RAIN...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INDICES THIS HIGH CAN RESULT IN HEAT
EXHAUSTION IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. IF YOU PLAN TO BE
OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR STRENUOUS PHYSICAL ACTIVITY.
DRINK PLENTY OF NON-ALCOHOLIC FLUIDS TO AVOID DEHYDRATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED STORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

WELSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
121 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

GAZ150>152-151800-
BRANTLEY GA-PIERCE GA-WARE GA-
121 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BRANTLEY...WARE
AND PIERCE COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID
UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 121 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SUNNYSIDE...OR ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WAYCROSS...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND SUNNYSIDE...HOBOKEN...RAYBON...NAHUNTA AND HICKOX THROUGH 200
PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

CAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
231 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

FLZ037-038-151915-
FLAGLER FL-PUTNAM FL-
231 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FLAGLER AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...

AT 231 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE
COMO...OR ABOUT 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF POMONA PARK...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND SAN MATEO...POMONA PARK...LAKE COMO...CRESCENT CITY...
ANDALUSIA...ESPANOLA...PALM COAST AND BUNNELL THROUGH 315 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

CAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

GAZ152>154-152030-
BRANTLEY GA-COASTAL GLYNN GA-INLAND GLYNN GA-
343 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BRANTLEY AND GLYNN
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 343 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
8 MILES NORTHEAST OF EVERETT TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF HOBOKEN...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF DARIEN TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF
HOBOKEN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND RAYBON...NAHUNTA...HOBOKEN...HICKOX...
EVERETT...ATKINSON...WAYNESVILLE AND THALMANN THROUGH 430 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
349 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

GAZ133-152030-
JEFF DAVIS GA-
349 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFF DAVIS COUNTY
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 349 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 11 MILES WEST OF HAZLEHURST...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND
HAZLEHURST THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
350 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

GAZ163-152030-
CLINCH GA-
350 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL CLINCH
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 350 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER DU PONT...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HOMERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND HOMERVILLE AND DU PONT
THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
357 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

GAZ165-166-152045-
COASTAL CAMDEN GA-INLAND CAMDEN GA-
357 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAMDEN COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 357 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
9 MILES NORTH OF WAVERLY TO 14 MILES WEST OF WAVERLY...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST OF DOCK JUNCTION TO 7 MILES SOUTH
OF NAHUNTA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WAVERLY AND WOODBINE
THROUGH 445 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZIBURA