Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUES)...A LOOK AT THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
JUICY AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH THE MEAN SFC-700 MB WIND SW NEAR
15 KNOTS. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT ALONG THE
PREVALENT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVE....WITH A COLLISION WITH THE MUCH WEAKER EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG IN ESPECIALLY IN THIS AREA. HAVE
GONE WITH EVENING POPS RANGING FROM 30 PCT TO THE WEST TO 50 PCT
ALONG SE GA COAST. FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL MOVE THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. CLEARING...COOLER AND DRIER FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ETA MODEL IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE
GFS AND PRODUCES LESS PCP OVERALL THAN THE GFS. PREFER A BLEND OF
THE TWO FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING THROUGH THE PERIOD. ESSENTIALLY A
DRY FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE
SQUALL LINE APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY THEN CLEARING
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 66 82 60 74 / 40 60 70 30
SSI 68 82 64 71 / 50 50 70 60
JAX 68 84 65 76 / 40 50 70 70
SGJ 70 85 66 74 / 40 50 70 70
GNV 68 85 65 78 / 40 50 70 70
OCF 68 86 66 78 / 40 50 60 70
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

PP/ACS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
NOON EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-012200-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
NOON EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE AREA BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR
MORE DETAILS.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS EAST OF THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS AND IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
PERSONS ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE TO
THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO HEAD INDOORS TO A PLACE OF SAFETY WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME IMMINENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
451 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

FLZ032-012130-
CLAY FL-
451 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN CLAY
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

AT 451 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING FROM DOCTORS INLET WEST
OF THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER TO PALATKA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PENNY
FARMS...GREEN COVE SPRINGS...ASBURY LAKE...BELLAIR-MEADOWBROOK
TERRACE AND ORANGE PARK THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING ON ROADWAYS
AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
457 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

FLZ037-012145-
PUTNAM FL-
457 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUTNAM COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 457 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF BOSTWICK...OR
ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALATKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND
BOSTWICK THROUGH 545 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AND
REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
527 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

FLZ024-GAZ165-166-012215-
COASTAL CAMDEN GA-INLAND CAMDEN GA-NASSAU FL-
527 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NASSAU AND CAMDEN
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 615 PM
EDT...

AT 527 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF
KINGSLAND TO CUMBERLAND ISLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
KINGSLAND...KINGS FERRY...ST. MARYS...WOODBINE...COLESBURG...KINGS
BAY BASE...HARRIETTS BLUFF AND CUMBERLAND ISLAND THROUGH 615 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
TEMPORARY FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
531 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

FLZ033-012215-
ST. JOHNS FL-
531 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST. JOHNS COUNTY
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 531 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DURBIN...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FRUIT COVE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND DURBIN AND SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH THROUGH 615 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
TEMPORARY FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
551 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

FLZ025-012245-
DUVAL FL-
551 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN DUVAL
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...

AT 551 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BALDWIN
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN DUVAL COUNTY TO BAYARD...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND BALDWIN...JACKSONVILLE
HEIGHTS...NORMANDY...ORTEGA...RIVERSIDE...SAN MARCO...DOWNTOWN
JACKSONVILLE AND UNF THROUGH 645 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING ON ROADWAYS AND
REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
552 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

GAZ150-163-012230-
CLINCH GA-WARE GA-
552 PM EDT SAT MAY 1 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLINCH AND WARE
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 630 PM
EDT...

AT 552 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTH OF FARGO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND FARGO THROUGH 630 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

TRABERT