Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

.CURRENTLY...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC TO ACROSS NE FL. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WAS N OR NW BETWEEN 5
AND 10 MPH. ALOFT...THERE WAS AN ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING VORT ENERGY
CUTTING INTO THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER DEVELOPING
MCS WAS WELL THE COAST TRACKING SW. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH CAPE AT JAX 4600J AND K INDEX 37. WSR 88D INDICATING
THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE WITH
STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWA WHERE THERE
WAS PVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...WITH THE UPPER HIGH WELL WEST OF THE
REGION...THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND WEST ALONG THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE RUC IS HINTING AT VORT
ENERGY SKIRTING THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS WHAT IS
HAPPENING. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING THROUGHOUT CWA AND THEN MOVING CWA. WITH
ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL GO SCATTERED POPS THIS EVE...WITH HIGHEST
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS BETWEEN I-95 AND I-75. THE MAIN CONCERNS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE THE INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
(FROM HIGH PW AND CAPE) AND THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FROM POSSIBLE
TRAINING OF CELLS. THE STRONGER STORMS (NEAR SEA BREEZE COLLISION)
COULD ALSO PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL BE DETERMINED BY ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND TRACK SOUTH TOWARDS THE CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOW WEAK RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON MON. THIS ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING PWATS WILL RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE...WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL
INTERACT WITH CONVERGING FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
THE ETA AND NGM ARE TOO DRY AND WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS GOING.
TUESDAY...COL ESTABLISHES AS REGION TRANSITIONS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING LIKELY ACROSS INLAND
SE GA AND NEAR I-10. HAVE GONE WITH 40 TO 60 PCT POPS.

.LONG TERM (THU THROUGH SUN)...VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO CARVE A DEEP TROF OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE LATEST RUN OF MRF CONTINUES TO DRAG A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH CWA FRI AND SAT BEFORE STALLING IT JUST TO
THE SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ACROSS THE NORTH CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TOO UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND APPEARS TO STALL IT NEAR THE FL GA BORDER. WILL CONTINUE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF NEAR CLIMO POPS ACROSS CWA EXCEPT TO DROP INLAND
SE GA TO 20 PCT OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO AS HOT WEST WINDS CONTINUE.
&&

.MARINE...GFS/ETA CONSENSUS WINDS CAPTURING WIND MAX OF 16 KNOTS AT
41012 DECENTLY...AND SWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND. LIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF AGAIN TONIGHT. NOAA WAVE WATCH CONTINUES TO HANDLE FLAT 1-3
FT SEAS NICELY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 94 74 93 / 30 40 20 50
SSI 76 89 77 90 / 30 40 20 50
JAX 74 92 74 93 / 40 40 20 50
SGJ 76 88 76 89 / 40 40 20 50
GNV 72 92 72 92 / 40 50 20 50
OCF 72 92 72 92 / 40 50 20 40
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

PP/JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
NOON EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-121000-
ALACHUA FL-APPLING GA-ATKINSON GA-BACON GA-BAKER FL-BRADFORD FL-
BRANTLEY GA-CHARLTON GA-CLAY FL-CLINCH GA-COASTAL CAMDEN GA-
COASTAL GLYNN GA-COFFEE GA-COLUMBIA FL-DUVAL FL-ECHOLS GA-FLAGLER FL-
GILCHRIST FL-HAMILTON FL-INLAND CAMDEN GA-INLAND GLYNN GA-
JEFF DAVIS GA-MARION FL-NASSAU FL-PIERCE GA-PUTNAM FL-ST. JOHNS FL-
SUWANNEE FL-UNION FL-WARE GA-WAYNE GA-
NOON EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION.  HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
45 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PROGRESS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ECZ/PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
552 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

FLZ024-112245-
NASSAU FL-
552 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NASSAU COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 552 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 7 MILES NORTH OF HILLIARD...OR ABOUT 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF FOLKSTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND HILLIARD THROUGH 645 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
602 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LA CROSSE               29.84N 82.40W
07/11/2004                   ALACHUA            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES WAS DOWN AT STATE ROAD 235 EAST OF LA CROSSE.

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GAINESVILLE             29.67N 82.34W
07/11/2004                   ALACHUA            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AROUND GAINESVILLE. ONE OF THE TREES
            WAS REPORTED DOWN ON A HOME AT 8620 NW 13TH STREET.
            REPORT WAS RELAYED TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AT 1740 LST.

&&

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
605 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

GAZ162-163-112230-
CLINCH GA-ECHOLS GA-
605 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLINCH AND ECHOLS
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 630 PM
EDT...

AT 605 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 10 MILES NORTH OF FARGO...
MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND NEEDMORE AND FARGO THROUGH 630 PM EDT. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
614 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

GAZ152-112315-
BRANTLEY GA-
614 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BRANTLEY COUNTY
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 614 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HORTENSE...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF NAHUNTA...MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND HORTENSE...RAYBON...ATKINSON...NAHUNTA AND HICKOX THROUGH 715
PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
633 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

FLZ022-023-GAZ164-112330-
BAKER FL-CHARLTON GA-COLUMBIA FL-
633 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BAKER...COLUMBIA
AND SOUTHERN CHARLTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 633 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES EAST OF TAYLOR...OR
ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARGO...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. THIS
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
TAYLOR...GLEN ST. MARY...SANDERSON AND OLUSTEE THROUGH 730 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
634 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

GAZ163-112330-
CLINCH GA-
634 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLINCH COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 730 PM
EDT...

AT 634 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HOMERVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS BETWEEN HOMERVILLE AND FARGO
THROUGH 730 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI