Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

.SHORT TERM...VERY HIGH INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILE THIS AFTERNOON IS LEADING TO AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL STILL BE LOOKING FOR PULSE SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD TO SOME WET
MICROBURSTS IN CONTINUED HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT. GPS DERIVED
SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WHICH WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS WELL.

MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE MESO-ETA...HAVE BACKED OFF ON DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR OVER THE KEYS ROTATING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND INSTEAD KEEP THIS FEATURE LARGELY WEST OF OUR AREA.
DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT IN ADEQUATE MOISTURE...SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES REMAIN WRT POPS. WESTERN ZONES VARY BY SOME 30% TO 40%
IN THESE AREAS WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WITH SOME VORTICITY
ADVECTION PROGGED FOR THE FLORIDA PORTION...WILL GO HIGHER THAN
THE MET GUIDANCE WITH GENERALLY HIGH END SCATTERED EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS...TAPERING SLIGHTLY LESS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WILL STILL SEE
THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS AS 500 TEMPS REMAIN
-7 TO -8 AND RESIDUAL MID LEVEL DRY AIR COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MICROBURSTS.

FOR FRIDAY...WILL BEGIN TO SEE UPPER RIDGE BUILD BACK IN FORCE FROM
THE EAST WITH 593 DM HEIGHTS BY AFTERNOON.  GFS MAINTAINS HIGH POPS
DESPITE THIS AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS.
WILL GENERALLY GO WITH A BLEND FOR THE POPS BUT LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE DRIER ETA NUMBERS. WILL ALSO STAY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS GIVEN WARMING MID-LEVELS.

WILL SEE CONTINUING TREND OF BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH 595DM HIGH CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. GUIDANCE IS
SLOW TO RESPOND TO THIS AND HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS
AND BELOW FOR POPS. MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH FOR POPS AS ETA SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT DRYING FROM THE SOUTH...BUT WILL AT LEAST TRIM POPS FOR
NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA LEADING TO MORE IN THE WAY OF CLIMO POPS AND
TEMPS.
&&

.MARINE...RIDGE TO REMAIN MAINLY S OF THE AREA WITH W TO SW FLOW
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH RIDGE MAY MOVE BRIEFLY UP TO NRN FL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL SW SURGES AT NIGHT AOB 15 KT. SEAS TO REMAIN AOB 3
FT. NO HEADLINES REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 72 93 73 94 / 20 40 30 30
SSI 76 91 76 90 / 20 40 30 30
JAX 73 91 75 93 / 20 50 30 40
SGJ 75 90 76 89 / 20 40 30 30
GNV 72 92 72 93 / 20 50 30 40
OCF 72 92 71 93 / 20 50 30 50
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...JTD/MH
MARINE/FIRE WX...ARS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-081000-
ALACHUA FL-APPLING GA-ATKINSON GA-BACON GA-BAKER FL-BRADFORD FL-
BRANTLEY GA-CHARLTON GA-CLAY FL-CLINCH GA-COASTAL CAMDEN GA-
COASTAL GLYNN GA-COFFEE GA-COLUMBIA FL-DUVAL FL-ECHOLS GA-FLAGLER FL-
GILCHRIST FL-HAMILTON FL-INLAND CAMDEN GA-INLAND GLYNN GA-
JEFF DAVIS GA-MARION FL-NASSAU FL-PIERCE GA-PUTNAM FL-ST. JOHNS FL-
SUWANNEE FL-UNION FL-WARE GA-WAYNE GA-
1041 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...HEAT INDICES 100 TO 105 THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH MOISTURE VALUES COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES TOPPING THE 100 DEGREE MARK THIS
AFTERNOON. IF POSSIBLE...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS REMAIN
INDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY. IF
YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE...BE SURE TO TAKE IN PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND LIMIT
EXPOSURE AS NECESSARY.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEABREEZES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.
PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MZ/JTD

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