Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
208 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

.CURRENTLY...SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH. GULF SEA BREEZE HAS ADVANCED INLAND WITH
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE COAST...EXCEPT IN FLAGLER AND ST.
JOHNS COUNTIES WHERE THE BOUNDARY HAS ADVANCED INLAND...AS EVIDENCED
BY EAST WIND NEAR 10 MPH AT ST. AUGUSTINE. ALOFT...WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOSES NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR...
FOCUSED ALONG THE GULF SEA BREEZE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. WITH LOWER PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...GULF SEA BREEZE WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SEA-
BREEZE COLLISION WILL EDGE FURTHER WEST EACH DAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FURTHER WEAKENS...IN RESPONSE TO DEEP LAYER RIDGING SETTLING INTO
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH EASTWARD PROGRESS TO PUSH STORMS
OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNSET...WITH SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO
THWART EXTENSIVE EVENING CLOUDINESS. AS ADVERTISED...ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW REGIME WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM (THU THRU SUN)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL WILL BRING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. A LIGHT FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED....THEREFORE THE
SEABREEZE COLLISION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH AFTN.
WILL CONTINUE TREND OF CHANCE POPS FOR AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
ACTIVITY.
&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH. SWLY FLOW EXISTS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A MORE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED TO THE COAST...
THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN ONSHORE WIND SHIFT UNTIL
THURSDAY WHEN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS...HIGHEST OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT NIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 94 74 94 / 10 30 10 30
SSI 75 92 76 92 / 20 30 20 30
JAX 74 93 74 93 / 20 30 20 30
SGJ 74 91 75 90 / 20 30 20 30
GNV 72 93 73 93 / 20 40 20 30
OCF 72 93 73 93 / 20 50 20 40
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

ZAPPE/DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1155 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-051000-
ALACHUA FL-APPLING GA-ATKINSON GA-BACON GA-BAKER FL-BRADFORD FL-
BRANTLEY GA-CHARLTON GA-CLAY FL-CLINCH GA-COASTAL CAMDEN GA-
COASTAL GLYNN GA-COFFEE GA-COLUMBIA FL-DUVAL FL-ECHOLS GA-FLAGLER FL-
GILCHRIST FL-HAMILTON FL-INLAND CAMDEN GA-INLAND GLYNN GA-
JEFF DAVIS GA-MARION FL-NASSAU FL-PIERCE GA-PUTNAM FL-ST. JOHNS FL-
SUWANNEE FL-UNION FL-WARE GA-WAYNE GA-
1156 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEABREEZES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AFFECT OUR WESTERN
FLORIDA ZONES STARTING AROUND NOON. AS THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE MOVES
INLAND..CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE SEABREEZES AND
STORM OUTFLOWS COLLIDE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH...AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.
PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ECZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
354 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

FLZ032-042030-
CLAY FL-
354 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLAY COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 354 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PENNEY FARMS...OR
ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF MELROSE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PENNEY FARMS
THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

PETERSON

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