Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004

.SHORT TERM...LATEST DATA FROM GOES SOUNDING AND VIS IMAGERY SHOWS
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY BUT NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION AS OF YET. SOME
NVA EARLY ON AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT SFC THAN YESTERDAY MAY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER...WILL
SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE E COAST
SEA BREEZE WHICH IS MOVING CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 95. LAPS CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG. PREVAILING FLOW IN MID LEVELS FROM THE W AT
ABOUT 10 KT WILL PUSH MOST OF THE CONVECTION TOWARD THE COAST THIS
AFTN AND EVENING. AGAIN FOR SAT...SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT TO GENERATE
EARLY AFTN CONVECTION ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO RESULT IN HIGH
CHANCE POPS...BEST SHOT CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. PWATS MAY DROP ABOUT A
TENTH AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER NEWD THUS POPS
LOWERING TO NEAR 50%. ON SUN...PWATS MAY DROP A LITTLE FURTHER TO
AROUND 1.7 INCHES BUT TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE SHOWN BY ETA AND GFS MAY
BE ABLE TO KICK START CONVECTION AND SO CONTINUING 40-50% CHANCE POPS
LOOKS GOOD. HIGHER POPS LOOK MORE REASONABLE FOR FL PORTION OF CWA.
ALSO...TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND -6 C AT 500 MB WILL
COUNTERACT HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FOR MON...
WEAKER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND LOWER MEAN RH LEVELS ARGUE FOR SHAVING OFF
POPS ANOTHER 10%. AVERAGE MAX TEMPS EACH DAY SHOULD BE ON A GRADUAL
RISE DUE TO LESS CLOUDINESS/CONVECTION BUT COULD PROMOTE PATCHY
RADITIAIONAL FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING. SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
REMAINS LOW DUE TO LACK OF STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGH
WET BULB HEIGHTS.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...RIDGE FROM SFC TO MID LEVELS REMAINS OVER THE
REGION TUE AND WED WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS
ARGUES FOR ONLY 30-40% POPS WITH STILL ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. MEAN LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK GRADUALLY NWD THU AND FRI AS
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NRN CONUS MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. GUIDANCE POPS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
30-40% POPS AGAIN. BEST CHANCES FOR AFTN CONVECTION MAY SHIFT TOWARD
INLAND AREAS BY FRI AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SE AND E. TEMPS MAY BE
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 90S SOME AREAS DURING THE WEEK THANKS TO HIGH
PRES RIDGE ALOFT.
&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WITH RIDGE S OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. SEAS
REMAINING AROUND 2 FT. NO HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 72 90 72 92 / 20 50 20 40
SSI 75 88 75 89 / 30 40 20 40
JAX 72 91 72 91 / 30 50 20 50
SGJ 75 89 74 88 / 30 50 20 40
GNV 71 91 71 90 / 20 50 20 50
OCF 72 91 72 91 / 20 50 20 50
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

ARS/MZ/MH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1145 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-031000-
ALACHUA FL-APPLING GA-ATKINSON GA-BACON GA-BAKER FL-BRADFORD FL-
BRANTLEY GA-CHARLTON GA-CLAY FL-CLINCH GA-COASTAL CAMDEN GA-
COASTAL GLYNN GA-COFFEE GA-COLUMBIA FL-DUVAL FL-ECHOLS GA-FLAGLER FL-
GILCHRIST FL-HAMILTON FL-INLAND CAMDEN GA-INLAND GLYNN GA-
JEFF DAVIS GA-MARION FL-NASSAU FL-PIERCE GA-PUTNAM FL-ST. JOHNS FL-
SUWANNEE FL-UNION FL-WARE GA-WAYNE GA-
1145 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND SEABREEZES WHICH WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 10 MPH
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL. STORMS SHOULD BE FORMING SHORTLY
AFTER THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 10 PM TONIGHT.

THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH...AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

HESS/ARS

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