Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SHIFTED OVER NORTH FL BRINGING
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE FL PORTION OF CWA WHILE GA PORTION IS MOSTLY IN
SW FLOW. A REGION OF VORTICITY HAS BEEN PROMOTING STORMS OVER GULF
WATERS OF PANHANDLE. THE VORTICITY WILL DRIFT TO THE SE AND IS
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE ONLY THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND WRN ZONES. EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE (ECSB) IS PUSHING INLAND WITH A ISOLATED STORMS
POPPING BY EARLY AFTN. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE ECSB TO
DOMINATE WHILE THE BIG BEND SEA BREEZE IS CONFINED TO THE COAST.
STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST NORTH OF I-10 AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC
ELSEWHERE UNTIL THIS EVNG WHEN STORMS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING N TO NE.

RIDGE REMAINS OVER CWA WED/THU WITH ECSB BEGINNING EARLY AFTN AND
STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND. ON WEDNESDAY ETA40 SHOWS CONVERGENCE FROM
WRN MARION COUNTY TO SE GA COAST AND ON THURSDAY ALONG THE TRAIL
RIDGE WEST OF I-95. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CROSS GEORGIA NORTH
OF CWA BUT WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE POPS ACROSS NRN
TIER. BY FRIDAY RIDGE DRIFTS TO CENTRAL FL AND SW FLOW WILL BRING
AFTN STORMS TO NE FL COAST.

.LONG TERM...A PAIR OF HIGH PRES CENTERS ALOFT OVER MEXICO AND SWRN
ATLANTIC BLOCK A TROUGH OVER THE SRN MS VALLEY WHICH KEEPS A MEAN SW
FLOW OVER OUR REGION.
&&

.MARINE...FLOW KEEPS SWITCHING BACK AND FORTH...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 90 72 90 / 30 50 40 50
SSI 74 89 75 88 / 20 50 30 40
JAX 73 91 73 91 / 30 50 30 50
SGJ 73 88 75 88 / 20 40 20 40
GNV 71 91 71 92 / 30 50 30 50
OCF 71 91 71 91 / 20 50 30 40
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

MKT/MH/MZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-301000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND SEABREEZES WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE COLLISION...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
AND HAIL...AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
445 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

FLZ040-292130-
MARION FL-
445 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

AT 445 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LYNNE...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND LYNNE THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
457 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

FLZ030-292145-
UNION FL-
457 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN UNION
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...

AT 457 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUKES...OR ABOUT
OVER WORTHINGTON SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND DUKES THROUGH 545 PM EDT.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE