Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

...SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION DEVELOPING PRETTY CLOSE TO MODEL
DEPICTIONS...WITH MAIN INITIAL CLUSTER ALONG THE WEST COAST
SEABREEZE AND TROUGH AXIS. SHORT TERM MODELS ALL SHIFT THIS AXIS
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CONVERGENCE BAND SETS UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PRIMARILY AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST
THROUGH CLAY AND PUTNAM COUNTIES AS WELL AS  JAX METRO AREAS.
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS AS SUFFICIENT
DRY AIR EXISTS IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH COOL 500 MB TEMPS
CREATING STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL STILL BE
DEALING WITH A DIVERGENT UPPER ATMOSPHERE PATTERN AS PINCHED RIDGE
AFFECTS MAINLY THE FLORIDA PORTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO DECREASING DEBRIS CLOUDS. FOR MONDAY...GULF TUTT
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND DAMPEN OUT...WITH MAIN
CONSEQUENCE BEING A DECREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE IN WAY OF CLIMO LIKE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION FOR MOST
OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH HOWEVER...IMPRESSIVE VORTICITY
CENTER ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME BOW
SEGMENTS TO AFFECT POINTS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OF WHAT THE MODELS
INDICATE. WILL KEEP SOME OVERNIGHT POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LIMIT TO LOW END SCATTERED AT THIS TIME.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AS MID
LEVELS COOL FURTHER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING THE
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS...MAIN 850 JET
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH WINDS PRESENT JUST OFF
THE SURFACE TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WET MICROBURSTS FOR THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

WILL BE SHIFTING FROM A MESO-SCALE ENVIRONMENT TO MORE OF A
SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE ON TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES IN TO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
DEVELOPS HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS AND TRACKS WHAT
MAY DEVELOP INTO A DECENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF UPPER ENERGY...BUT BELIEVE MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SELF SUSTAINING AND AIDED BY DEVELOPING COLD POOLS
TO MATCH MORE CLOSELY TO ETA DEPICTION. FOLLOWING THE ETA SUITE
THOUGH WEDNESDAY LEAVES THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO THE NORTH. WILL NOT BITE OFF ON THIS SOLUTION QUITE YET...
YIELDING INSTEAD TO MORE CLIMO TYPE POPS FOR THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL MOISTURE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH BY MID WEEK. WILL KEEP POPS AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A GENERALLY
SOUTH TO SW FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD RESULTING IN A
SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN 10 KT
OR LESS PAST FEW HOURS EXPECT A NOCTURNAL SURGE TO BRING WINDS 10 TO
15 KT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 72 91 71 89 / 30 40 40 60
SSI 76 89 75 88 / 50 30 40 50
JAX 72 92 72 89 / 50 40 40 50
SGJ 74 90 75 88 / 40 40 40 50
GNV 72 93 71 90 / 60 40 30 50
OCF 72 92 72 90 / 60 40 30 60
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...DEESE
MARINE/FIRE WX...TRABERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-281000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL FORM ALONG THE SEABREEZES AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS LATE IN
THE DAY...GENERALLY FROM MARION COUNTY IN FLORIDA NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTAL COUNTIES.

THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
AND HAIL...AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE EAST AT 10
TO 15 MPH...BUT MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWER AND MORE ERRATIC ALONG THE
SEABREEZES.

PRIOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT...THE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL

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