Tornado Warning 53, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
900 PM CST MON NOV 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE ZONES EARLIER TO REMOVE THE TORNADO WATCH AND WILL SEND
OUT ANOTHER TO UPDATE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. A GOOD BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND ARE NOW
ENTERING THE CWA. RUC AND HIRES ETA BOTH SHOW H85 THETA E RIDGE NOT
BUDGING EASTWARD TO MUCH AND SETTING UP RIGHT OVER NORTHEAST LA AND
SOUTHEAST AR. THIS LINE HAS BROUGHT RAIN APPROACHING AN INCH TO 2
INCHES AN HOUR AND WITH THAT BELIEF IS TO GO AHEAD AND BEGIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT MIDNIGHT BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM TOMORROW. BESIDES THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
AS TEMPS ARE RIGHT ON. ANOTHER NOTE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN
BE SEEN IN WESTERN TX WHERE SNOW WAS REPORTED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
ONCE AGAIN WILL SEND OUT ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE ZONES SHORTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
     MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
     ARZ074-075.
&&

CAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
725 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
022032-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
725 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI
MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG
AND WEST OF A RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO INDIANOLA MISSISSIPPI LINE
TONIGHT...THEN EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TUESDAY.

THE MAIN RISK FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN HOUR.	HOWEVER...A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY WEAKENED
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE AIR MASS BECAME MORE STABLE.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS MORE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
ALOFT APPROACH FROM SOUTH TEXAS.

THEN A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
TUESDAY...AND PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.	THESE FEATURES WILL
COMBINE WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG JET
STREAM DYNAMICS...AND A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

...FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF A FERRIDAY
LOUISIANA...TO GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI LINE MAINLY ON TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE ARKLAMISS OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING DURING A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME.  THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR
FLOODING...MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY.  AS UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL LIKELY MOVE
ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS REPEATEDLY.  THE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT.	AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF  STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS... AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN PORTIONS AND THEN
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
EVENING OF MONDAY...NOVEMBER 8.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.