Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1050 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IS FINALLY...AND THANKFULLY...GETTING A
DECENT COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TONIGHT. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES GROW
MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS A WEAK UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHES. INDIVIDUAL STORMS HAVE BEEN LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE
LATELY AS SURFACE INSTABILITY EBBS AWAY. ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH 30 TO 40 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
AVAILABLE...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HWO IS BEING UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING
AND ALSO TO SHOW THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA...WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
HANG UP AFTER ITS OVERNIGHT MIGRATION.

I WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO FIT RECENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS -
GENERALLY UPPING POPS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE AN MCS OF
MARGINAL POTENTIAL SHOULD TRACK OVER BEFORE MORNING. ALSO WILL TWEAK
OTHER GRID PARAMETERS SLIGHTLY ALTHOUGH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE FORECAST FIELDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1053 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
111938-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1053 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
HATTIESBURG.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISKS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MILES AN HOUR.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF MISSISSIPPI...AS WELL AS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND EAST LOUISIANA.  HAIL SMALLER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THIS AREA.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR NATCHEZ LATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE FROM THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS COMPLEX  OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE.  WHILE COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER PART
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS...MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
NEEDED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONFINED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.  RIGHT NOW...THIS APPEARS TO BE FAR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

...FLOODING...
EVEN THOUGH IT HAS BEEN DRY...WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOME
PONDING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
HALF INCH AND AN INCH...WITH A FEW SPOTS RECEIVING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EAST
LOUSIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BUTTS

...CORRECTED SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...