Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CST FRI MAR 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...SEVERE WEATHER?...FLOODING? BOTH REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN TO HAVE DEVELOPED BY NOW...WITH
MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TRAINING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY
EAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING...HELPING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA TO WARM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH DPTS NEAR
70...TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA...HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH DEVELOPMENT. THERE WERE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES NORTH. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE BUILDING SOUTH
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
LA...SO WOULD LIKE TO WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A FEW
OTHER STORMS WERE ALSO  MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH IT RAINING
ALL DAY WITH VERY FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR MORE THAN A FEW STRONG STORMS. WILL PROBABLY
MAKE AN ISSUANCE TIME DECISION ON CONTINUING THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SEVERE ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 IN THE
HWO AND IN THE ZONES. THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO EDGE EAST
SLOWLY...ORIENTED FROM AROUND BPT TO ESF TO JAN TO GTR AND POINTS
NORTH/EAST THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SWING THE UPPER LOW
NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THE BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST.
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT FORECAST...WITH THE AREA CLEARING BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SURE AT THIS POINT IF THE AREA WILL CLEAR...RAIN
OR AT LEAST CLOUDS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
ANYWAY BEYOND TONIGHT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A FEW COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...BUT MODELS KEEP
THEM DRY. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AFFECTED...SO COOLED TEMPS A FEW DAYS.
OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST OK. DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES.

JACKSON   55  70  42  64 /  80   0   0   0
MERIDIAN  57  71  41  65 / 100  10   0   0
&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
060124-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
324 PM CST FRI MAR 05 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF	THE OUTLOOK AREA...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OF 65 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL.  A VERY SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR
TORNADOES EXISTS AS WELL...MAINLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF
MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY EAST OF A WINONA TO UTICA TO NATCHEZ
LINE.

RESIDUAL SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH
OR FASTER.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THEY PASS.  LATER TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAKENING AND ALLOW THE STORMS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.

...FLOODING...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR THAT
COULD CAUSE  PONDING ON AREA ROADS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 55
WHERE RAINS COULD PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. OTHERWISE ACTIVATION SHOULD
NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.