Severe Thunderstorm Warning 408, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004

...LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE TRIGGERING AN
INCREASING AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS IT
HEADS RAPIDLY EAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN EARLIER MODELS HAD PREDICTED AT THIS POINT AND NOW THE MODELS
EXPECT THE SURFACE REFLECTION (SURFACE LOW) TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT AS IT TRACKS FROM EASTERN OK INTO CENTRAL IL. THE TIGHTLY
PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
BRUSH THE DELTA EAST TO THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE LATER TONIGHT AND WE
HAVE HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EXPECTATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS
UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 35 MPH. WE ALSO HAVE ISSUED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR AREAS BASICALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS AND THIS WILL FALL
UPON GROUND THAT IS SATURATED AND PRONE TO LOTS OF STANDING WATER
ALREADY. IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI MAY STAY
LARGELY DRY UNTIL SOMETIME NEAR THE DAWN HOURS WITH LESS POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY.

SPEAKING OF SEVERE WEATHER...WE STILL ARE DIAGNOSING A RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HAIL...HIGH WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA...SOUTHEAST AR AND
NORTHWEST MS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE GREATEST
IN THESE AREAS BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 TO 4 AM. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE...BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS BUILDING BACK IN. HOWEVER...IT NOW LOOKS
LIKE THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE SHAPE AND APPROACH WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH WITH ISENTROPICLY
LIFTED MOISTURE PROMPTING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND EVENTUALLY
PRECIP...BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT
MSZ018-019-025>038-040>044-047>049-053-054-059>061-071030.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ARZ074-075.

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
448 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
072248-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
448 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE NATCHEZ  TRACE.

A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND MOVE NORTH EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS HAS
SETTLED OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT SPREAD EAST.

A BAND OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TRACK EAST TOWARD THE
ARK-LA-TX REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND
EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD EAST INTO ARK-LA-MISS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN 60 AND 80 MPH AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST.
A SMALLER RISK WILL EXIST WITH ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM AHEAD
OF THE LINE. IF ANY SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP...ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE...MAINLY BETWEEN 8 PM AND 4 AM.

...FLOODING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN LEADING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE FROM NATCHEZ TO
COLUMBUS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
RAIN FALLS ON SATURATED GROUND...PONDING OF WATER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO FALL THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING 3 INCHES. HEAVY
RAIN LEADING TO THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE ARK-LA-MISS TONIGHT AS THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND LOCALLY
ROUGH CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS... AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS REQUESTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE NATCHEZ  TRACE. OTHERWISE... ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.