Severe Thunderstorm Warning 362, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE IS THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND IT/S EVENTUAL SHIFT BACK TO OUR NORTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. REGIONAL
WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS A CONGEALING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WELL AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM JACKSON KENTUCKY TO CLEVELAND MS
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA. WHILE CG LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SPARSE...GOOD SHEAR HAS LED
TO MINI SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK ROTATION
AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I20 CORRIDOR. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH EMBEDDED CELLS TAKING ON MINI SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT IN THE HWO FOR
MY NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. REFER TO JANHWOJAN OR GFE HAZARD GRIDS
FOR DETAILED INFO. THE LINE WILL MAKE IT/S WAY THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING...WITH SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA EXPECT SOUTH OF THE I20
CORRIDOR. THE SFC FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND ENTER MY NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED IN
MY NORTHERN TIER OF CONTINUES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH DURING THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE POP FORECAST IS A BIT SHAKY. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...IN MY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND KIS AROUND 30. CIRRUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET WILL LIMIT
HEATING TO THE LOWER 80S...SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. MEANWHILE...THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR SPARKING TODAY/S CONVECTION WILL EXIT
STAGE EAST...WITH WIND SHEAR BECOMING UNIDIRECTIONAL AND LIGHT. WITH
THE BEST FORCING MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...AND RELIANCE ON A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ONLY SLGHT CHC/LOW END CHC
POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I20.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
SOUTH MS SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO MORPH BACK TO THE NORTH DURING
THIS PERIOD. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AT THE 310K LEVEL EXHIBITING
WEAK...BUT PERSISTENT UPGLIDE OVER THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC
POPS OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD. CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA WILL PLAY HAVOC
WITH TEMPS AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NEAR 80S VALUES ALREADY
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...
00Z/23 ECMWF...00Z/23 GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE AND 12Z/23 OPS GFS
SUGGESTING THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AGAIN REGAIN CONTROL OF
OUR REGION/S WEATHER REGIME. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS THIS WEEK. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS LOW SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE IN STORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE PARTICULARS...SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW...H5 HEIGHTS RISING TO
NEAR 590DCM AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 15C STRONGLY CORRELATE TO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WED THRU FRI. AS PREVIOUS PACKAGES HAVE
MENTIONED...LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS SFC DEWPOINTS
STAY IN THE 60S AREA WIDE.  CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS ON THE LOW SIDE AND ONLY INCLUDED LOW END CHC POPS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  IN QUESTION IS THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE.

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

GAGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
244 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
241944-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
244 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM OAK GROVE
LOUISIANA TO BELZONI TO EUPORA MISSISSIPPI. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO.

AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST...IT WILL BE A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS PRESSURE TROUGH AND
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WINDS
ALOFT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO POSE A  DAMAGING
WIND THREAT TO A SMALL PORTION OF THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COMBINATION OF WET
GROUND AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS...HOWEVER PERIODIC CLEARING IS EXPECTED AND THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. AREAS NORTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY DENSE FOG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF  STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS... AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY NEEDED FOR THE NORTH WESTERN AREAS
TODAY. OTHERWISE, ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH  NEXT
SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.