Severe Thunderstorm Warning 355, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...

.SHORT TERM...THE ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE CWA WILL BE CHANGING BY
TOMORROW MORNING AND THE OVERALL PATTERN AMPLIFIES AS A DEEP TROUGH
SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER FLOW TO
BECOME MORE WNW TO NW AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX
DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HRS.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET WILL WEAKENS AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE CWA...THE SEVERE THREAT AND SHRA AND TSRA WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH. THE BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS A SFC HIGH PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WILL ALSO AID IN DRYING OUT THE REGION.
TONIGHT THE THETA E RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND A THETA E
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.
THERE WILL BE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA BUT WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH COND PREF DEF ARE NEAR 100 MB. ALSO PW VALUES
WILL BE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 1.5 AND BY THURSDAY MORNING SOME AREAS
IN THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE LESS THEN .75. SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE NOT
LOOKING GREAT. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHRA AND TSRA. THERE WILL BE A WEAK S/W WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NW FLOW TOMORROW AND WITH HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTH A FEW SHRA AND TSRA MAY DEVELOP. AS FOR SEVERITY OF THE
ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT LOOKS TO BE
A LITTLE MORE SUBDUED. AS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE WEATHER LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT CONTROLS THE
WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUES
TO DIG THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AND THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE CWA DRY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AND THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WILL BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING A STRONG SYSTEM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY
AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND. GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CANADIAN WITH
THE ECMWF THE WEAKEST AND FASTEST. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND THE
UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SW AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
BACK INTO THE REGION. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
IN SOUTHERN MN...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
MN/WESTERN WI. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA BY LATE
SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS TO ALLOW SHRA AND TSRA AS WE TRANSITION
BACK TO ZONAL FLOW...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN SEND WEAK IMPULSES OVER
THE CWA. IF GFS IS RIGHT THEN NEXT WEEK WILL BASICALLY MIRROR THIS
WEEK WITH SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN THURSDAY...SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

CAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
429 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
202129-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
429 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF
A MERIDIAN TO YAZOO CITY TO INDIANOLA LINE THIS  EVENING.  THE
MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL GREATER THAN THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.	THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL LESS
THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT IN WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE  ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.  AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...ALONG
A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI...STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO  DEVELOP.  ADDITIONALLY THERE
WILL BE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AND...AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

...FLOODING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND
CROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS REPEATEDLY FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  SOME TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT IN WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE  ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST...ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY
TO  DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF  STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS... AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED  THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. OTHERWISE... ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0345 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

MSZ040-047>049-053>056-063>066-072>074-192145-
CLAIBORNE MS-COPIAH MS-COVINGTON MS-FORREST MS-HINDS MS-ISSAQUENA MS-
JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-JONES MS-LAMAR MS-LAWRENCE MS-MARION MS-RANKIN
MS-SIMPSON MS-SMITH MS-WARREN MS-

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 866 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES:

IN MISSISSIPPI...
CLAIBORNE...    COPIAH...       COVINGTON...    FORREST...
HINDS...        ISSAQUENA...    JEFFERSON DAVIS...JONES...
LAMAR...        LAWRENCE...     MARION...       RANKIN...
SIMPSON...      SMITH...        WARREN...

MSZ050>052-057-058-192145-
CLARKE MS-JASPER MS-LAUDERDALE MS-NEWTON MS-SCOTT MS-

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 866 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN MISSISSIPPI...
CLARKE...       JASPER...       LAUDERDALE...   NEWTON...
SCOTT...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
446 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             5 W PHILADELPHIA        32.77N 89.20W
10/19/2004  1.25 INCH        NESHOBA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
734 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             NEWTON                  32.32N 89.16W
10/19/2004  0.75 INCH        NEWTON             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BYRD