Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
QUASISTATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS AR THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH PERSISTS WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MEAN SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WITH 500 MB WINDS REACHING 45-55 KT RANGE EARLY. OF
INTEREST IS FACT THAT MODELS AGREE IN LOCATING STRONGEST SHEAR SRN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL SEE BEST INSTABILITY NWRN ZONES IN AREA
OF BEST CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF SURFACE BOUNDARY BUT AIR MASS WILL
DESTABILIZE ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG JET
NOSES INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH MODEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS LIMITED DURING
THE DAY. HEALTHY SHORTWAVE MOVING THIS WAY IN ZONAL FLOW SHOULD
OFFER SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS TO GET ACTIVITY STARTED. MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP.

PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A LITTLE TODAY. ALTHOUGH 30 KTS NOTED JUST
OFF GROUND ON 19/00Z SOUNDING...WILL REFRAIN FROM LAKE WIND ADVISORY
ISSUANCE BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AGAIN TODAY.

MODELS DIFFER ON BOUNDARY LOCATION OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE GFS SHIFTS THE FRONT SWD AS THE ETA MAINTAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...LIFTING IT NWD
WEDNESDAY. WILL WORK WITH GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW CONSIDERING MEAN
UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE NW WITH TIME...WHICH WILL MEAN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TO THE REAR OF THE BOUNDARY FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND MODELS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN OF FRONTAL POSITION BY THAT TIME.

UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL CONTROL WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB FLOW BACKS MORE SWLY FRIDAY AND UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
INTO ERN ZONES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS LOOKING A BIT HEALTHIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO NW
ARKANSAS...PRECEDED BY AN INCREASING THETAE FIELD NW ZONES. A
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALSO NOTED ACROSS NRN ZONES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EVOLUTION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME AND
REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES SUNDAY WITH AN
UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE AREA. INCREASED SUNDAY POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE BUT LEFT MONDAY DRY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORCING FEATURES
FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
922 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
201422-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
922 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF
A BASTROP TO CANTON TO DEKALB LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL GREATER THAN THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THE MAIN
RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL LESS THAN THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT IN WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE  ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST...ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP.  ADDITIONALLY THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF WIND
SHEAR IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND...AS A
RESULT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...FLOODING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS REPEATEDLY
FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  SOME TEMPORARY PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT IN WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE  ACROSS THE
REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST...ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY
TO  DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF  STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS... AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED  THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. OTHERWISE... ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
753 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E BAY SPRINGS         31.98N 89.18W
10/18/2004                   JASPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            15 TO 20 TREES AND ONE POWERLINE DOWN.

&&

WILSON

MSZ034-191340-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
811 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF CHICOT
COUNTY ARKANSAS THROUGH 840 AM. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL. THIS STORM
WILL EFFECT GREENVILLE AND METCALF BY 820 AM AND STONEVILLE BY 830
AM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
957 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W DERMOTT             33.53N 91.46W
10/19/2004                   DREW               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1001 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DERMOTT                 33.53N 91.44W
10/19/2004                   CHICOT             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1002 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DERMOTT                 33.53N 91.44W
10/19/2004                   CHICOT             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

WILSON