Severe Thunderstorm Warning 326, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 AM CDT SAT AUG 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...
POSSIBILITY THAT TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT AREA WEATHER OVER
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER FIRST CONCERN FOR FORECAST TODAY WILL BE
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS AR/LA THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION LIKELY TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY WILL BE TRICKY SINCE CURRENT MOVEMENT PLACES SHORTWAVE INTO
WRN ZONES THIS MORNING.

DECREASING RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT NEXT
RAIN MAKER QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO NWRN MS
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE UNORGANIZED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
DUE TO NELY WINDS ALONG WRN EDGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
FORCING OTHER THAN IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. A DEGREE OF SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLE IF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM EDGES FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST BUT EXPECT EVEN WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. TIMING OF FRONTAL
MOVEMENT QUESTIONABLE WITH SUCH WEAK FLOW ALOFT. WILL FOLLOW MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND DRY/COLD AIR ADVECTION
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

MAIN QUESTION FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SWD EXTENT OF
COOLER AIR. WILL SEE MOST SIGNIFICANT COOLING IN EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLEST 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY...REMAINING COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AIR DROPS THIS WAY.

AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE BY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE LIFTS
OUT TO THE NE. LOW LEVEL E/NELY FLOW MAINTAINED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AS THE GFS DRAGS HURRICANE FRANCES NEAR THE
BAHAMAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY
BUT SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF FRANCES MAY KEEP THE AREA DRY. BEHAVIOR OF
FRANCES MAY POSSIBLY BE SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN LOWER MS VALLEY
WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
432 AM CDT SAT AUG 28 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
290932-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
432 AM CDT SAT AUG 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
SEPTEMBER FOURTH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.