Severe Thunderstorm Warning 323, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

.SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AS WELL AS THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WAS SLOWLY DEVELOPING
NORTHWARD. THERE WAS ALSO SOME GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT OF GOOD MEAN
MOISTURE(PCP WATER OF AROUND 2 INCHES) WHICH WAS AIDING IN
CONVECTION.

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL REVOLVE AROUND RAIN CHANCES WITH MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE THE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF
NORTH LOUISIANA ALONG WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS FEATURE
WAS NOTED BY THE MODELS THE PAST FEW DAYS/RUNS AND CONTINUES THIS
TREND TONIGHT. WE ALSO HAVE SOME BETTER LIMITED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS
UPPER JET SPREADS ACROSS THE THE REGION AND CURVES SOUTH ALONG THE
GULF COAST. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE POP FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE LINES OF THE ETA/GFS GUIDANCE. CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPS LOOK TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON LINE...DO NOT SEE MUCH
CHANGES. EXPECT 70 TO 73 ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR WEDNESDAY... AS NOTED BY THE MID SHIFT...SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE
AS RIDGING AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW START TO TAKE HOLD. AREAS ACROSS MY
EAST WILL REMAIN IN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND WILL HAVE DIVERGENCE
ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TEMPS
SHOULD BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER(PER NGM) ON WED DUE TO THE LIMITED
CONVECTION AND LATER START TO WHAT CAN GET GOING.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH SOME JET
SUPPORT AS LEFT EXIT REGION MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL EFFECT THE NW
CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH NEAR 50 POPS. WILL MAKE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LOWS AND HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...LOOKING AT FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS
WET FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
...WHICH WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FRONT WILL MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT LINGER IN THE
SOUTH. SO HAVE LEFT SCATTERED POPS FOR THE SOUTH HALF ON TUESDAY
WITH LEFT OVER MEAN MOISTURE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  92  74  92/  40  30  20  40
MERIDIAN      70  91  72  92/  50  50  20  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
148 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
251848-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
148 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...FLOODING...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE...AND THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...DITCHES AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS
CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING  2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL YESTERDAY...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO  RAPID
RUNOFF.

FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.  WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING VERY
MOIST...HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED.   PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...DITCHES AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.