Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

.SHORT TERM...
EXPECT A ONE TWO PUNCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A SQUALL LINE IS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTH MS AND SE ARK...THIS LINE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. OTHER SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM TN INTO CENTRAL AL. AN EXREMELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH SFC BASED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...PW VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES...AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE AREA
COMBINE FOR AN INTERESTING EVENING IN MISSISSIPPI. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED SQUALL LINE...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS. ANOTHER U/L DISTURBANCE...NOW LOCATED IN
KANSAS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING ROUND TWO OF
CONVECTION INTO THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE
OVERNIGHT SO AGAIN EXPECT AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH
THESE STORMS. WITH SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PWS NEAR 2 INCHES AND
KIS ABOVE 35...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY. WILL HIGHLIGHT PONDING
OF AREA ROADWAYS IN THE HWOJAN...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SEVERE IN THESE
AREAS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY UNSTABLE. A LOW
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WITH DEW POINTS
THAT IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S...SFC BASED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG
APPEAR LIKELY. MODELS QUICKLY MOVE THE CONVECTION OUT OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FORCES THE FRONTALY BOUNDARY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD. EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LOWER RH
AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND.

.LONG TERM...BACK TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AFTER A BRIEF COOL
DOWN ON MONDAY. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION
USHERING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS...LOW TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE. HAVE DROPPED LOWS INTO THE MID 60S MOST AREAS. GFS
INDICATES INCREASED INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE SLOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON TYPE CONVECTION. GFS
INDICATES THAT U/L ENERGY WILL BE POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...SO INCREASED POPS TO LOW END CHANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON    70  87  69  89 /  60  70  30  10
MERIDIAN   70  87  69  89 /  60  70  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

15/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
127 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
171827-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
127 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTH TO SOUTH FROM NEAR GRENADA TO
NEAR HATTIESBURG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE
ALREADY TODAY. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE MOVES SOUTH INTO THIS UNSTABLE
AIR...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE UNUSUALLY STRONG
FOR JULY.  COMBINED WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR...THIS MEANS THAT
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.  FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AREAS NORTH OF A
CROSSETT...ARKANSAS TO DE KALB LINE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS ONE OR TWO COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.  DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STORMS MAY ERUPT AND BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY.

...FLOODING...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE...UNIDIRECTIONAL UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT
STORMS MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATION. LOCALIZED HOURLY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO OR THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.  ADDITIONALLY...THE TORRENTIAL
RATE OF RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN BRIEF FLASH FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS AS LINES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS... AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...COULD BE NECESSARY AT ANY TIME FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
213 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N PHILADELPHIA        32.83N 89.11W
07/16/2004                   NESHOBA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES UPROOTED, PINE TREES AND LIMBS
            TWISTED OFF, REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

1240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ENTERPRISE              32.17N 88.81W
07/16/2004                   CLARKE             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE ACROSS COUNTY ROAD 133 IN ENTERPRISE REPORTED BY
            LAW ENFORCEMENT.

1240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EUPORA                  33.54N 89.28W
07/16/2004                   WEBSTER            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, THREE TREES DOWN.

1240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ENTERPRISE              32.17N 88.81W
07/16/2004                   CLARKE             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS HIGHWAY 11 NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF
            STAFFORD SPRINGS, REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

1240 PM     HAIL             6 NE LOUISVILLE         33.18N 88.98W
07/16/2004  0.25 INCH        WINSTON            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

1256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ACKERMAN                33.31N 89.17W
07/16/2004                   CHOCTAW            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHINGLES RIPPED OFF SEVERAL HOMES. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN
            COUNTY WIDE

0100 PM     HAIL             5 N LOUISVILLE          33.20N 89.05W
07/16/2004  0.75 INCH        WINSTON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF LOUSVILLE
            REPORTED BY CIVIL DEFENSE.

&&

GILMORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
227 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WINONA                  33.49N 89.73W
07/16/2004                   MONTGOMERY         MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES COUNTY WIDE OCCURRED
            BETWEEN 1140 AND 1220.

1245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LUMBERTON               31.00N 89.45W
07/16/2004                   LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN COUNTY WIDE REPORTED
            BY CIVIL DEFENSE OFFICIALS.

1250 PM     LIGHTNING        STRINGER                31.87N 89.26W
07/16/2004                   JASPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOME STRUCK BY LIGHTING AT AROUND 1245 PM IN STRINGER
            REPORTED BY CIVIL DEFENSE OFFICIALS.

&&

GILMORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
231 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0209 PM     TSTM WND GST     DOWNTOWN JACKSON        32.30N 90.19W
07/16/2004  60 MPH           HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIND GUST TO 60 MILES AN HOUR REPORTED BY MISSISSIPPI
            EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

GILMORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 S ELLISVILLE         31.45N 89.21W
07/16/2004                   JONES              MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN 10 MILES SOUTH OF
            ELLISVILLE, REPORTED BY UTILITY COMPANY.

&&

GILMORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAUREL                  31.69N 89.14W
07/16/2004                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MUTIPLE TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE.

&&

GILMORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEARL                   32.27N 90.11W
07/16/2004                   RANKIN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS POWER LINES DOWN IN VICINITY OF ALBERMARLE
            STREET IN PEARL REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS.

&&

GILMORE