Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1255 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

&&

.SHORT TERM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...BUT
EXPECT FOCUS TO SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES NEAR 5000 J/KG. GFS INDICATES A
THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...THIS
ALONG WITH A 500MB LOW CENTERED OVER TN AND A 500MB VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH THE SAME AREA...EXPECT THE FOCUS OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY TO
BE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THE
MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES. ANOTHER IMPULSE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SHIFT A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MS. WITH AMPLE CAPE AND SHEAR AVAILABLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. SEE HWO FOR DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO DRYING CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AS THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH LOW U/L RH VALUES. U/L RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON TUESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  92  71  91 /  40  40  30  40
MERIDIAN      72  91  70  90 /  40  40  50  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY MUCH OF WEST AND SOUTH TIL 00Z THURSDAY.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
162125-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
425 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF
THIS  AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 82.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WHOLE
OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING COULD QUICKLY BECOME
STRONG...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 60
TO 70 MPH. THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY AS A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION WILL
AGAIN BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. THE  STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG...AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.

...SEASONAL THREATS...
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 105 AND 110  OVER MUCH OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ...ESPECIALLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF A CLEVELAND...TO LEXINGTON...TO DEKALB LINE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A MORE FAVORABLE SET UP FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
FRIDAY NIGHT  INTO SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
REGION TO SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
DURING THIS PERIOD. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AND LOWER THE THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS... AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS REQUESTED THIS EVENING...AND MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND  SATURDAY. NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.