Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1113 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED GOING FORECAST TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 90
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND INCREASE CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES.

WSR 88D MOSIAC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

MORNING SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE ARE STEEP LAPSE
RATES...PARTICULARLY IN THE 850 TO 500 MB LEVEL...AS WELL AS LIS
AROUND -12C. WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S...AND HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90...SFC BASED CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2750 J/KG RESULT.  THUS
THE WET MICROBURST CHECKLIST INDICATES AN EXTREME POTENTIAL.  AM
EXPECTING SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND WILL USE COVERAGE WORDING IN ZONE TEXT.

HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED TO HIGHLIGHT ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL...FOR WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR.  ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING SCT STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PFM AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

GAGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1045 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
081545-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
1045 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.  DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN GOOD INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT TO NEARLY
CONSTANT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.  ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82...OTHERWISE ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY...JULY 13.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.