Severe Thunderstorm Warning 258, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

SYNOPSIS...OUR REGION IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO DRY OUT THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT ACCOMPANYING THIS TREND WILL BE A RETURN OF HEAT.
ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WORK WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...
THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE WATCHING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE IS MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LIS CURRENTLY
NEAR THE -10 DEGREE C RANGE IN THE ARKLAMISS. ADDITIONALLY...0-6
KM SHEAR IN THIS GENERAL REGION IS NOTHING TO SNEEZE AT WITH VALUES
AROUND 30 KTS. THESE FACTORS MEAN THAT ANY STORMS THAT ERUPT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE (MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
TWENTY) WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE
IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL ACTUALLY FORM DUE
TO WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 700 MB VICINITY CAPPING CONVECTION. I
WILL HANDLE THE SITUATION BY USING UNCERTAINTY WORDING IN THE
ZONES AND EXTENDING SLIGHT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE. ALL OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEE THE HWO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

FOR THE FOURTH WE CAN EXPECT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE DISTURBANCE THAT IS MUCKING UP THIS EVENING/S
FORECAST WILL BE TO THE EAST TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH A HINT OF A SHEAR
AXIS WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. I WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
ZONES WHILE EVERYONE ELSE SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY. ANY OF THE SPARSE
SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED IN NATURE. WENT CLOSE TO FWC NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS TOMORROW AS THE VERY MOIST GROUND SHOULD TEMPER THE POTENTIAL
OF 20+ DEGREE C 850 MB TEMPS TO PRODUCE MID 90S AT THE SURFACE.

MUCH THE SAME CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE HEAT (DUE TO THE PREVIOUS DAY/S EVAPORATION) AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS CONFINED TO SOUTHERN ZONES MAINLY. BY
TUESDAY...ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE MS RIVER
FROM THE WEST AND BACK LOW LEVEL WINDS CLOSER TO SOUTHERLY. THE
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLING OF 850 TO 700 MB
TEMPS WILL PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION SO I
BEGAN TO TREND POPS BACK UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
BASED ON THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER EXPECTATION.

.LONG TERM...
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER SHEAR AXIS WILL SET UP JUST WEST
OF MS RIVER...SMACK IN BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A RIDGE CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
BRUSH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF
DISTURBANCES...BUT ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR
BEFORE STALLING. THESE FACTORS WOULD POINT TO PERHAPS ANOTHER
STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE
BERMUDA HIGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO CUT MOST OF THE GULF OFF
FROM GIVING US THE DEEP TROPICAL FEED NEEDED TO GENERATE THE KIND OF
PRECIP WE HAVE BEEN SEEING AS OF LATE. DESPITE THIS CONSERVATIVE
LEAN I STILL WENT GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHER DAYTIME POPS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SEABREEZE-RELATED
OUTFLOW WILL BE A PLAYER. I WENT NEAR NORMAL FOR TEMPS AS AMPLE
CLOUDS AND DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING OUT OF
HAND.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
041939-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
239 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE
INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR FROM MERIDIAN TO HATTIESBURG.  WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS TO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT.  A MOIST INFLOW OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
INTO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ARKANSAS MAY FOCUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THROUGH THE EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS TO THE COLUMBUS AREA OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING OF
SATURDAY...JULY 10.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.