Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
253 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOONS SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
FURTHER SOUTH...DATA ALSO SHOWS A CONFLUENT AXIS NEAR THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR.  WITH ANOTHER PERTURBATION (OR THREE) IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA...I EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
FILL IN AROUND THESE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE ONE OR TWO
STORMS MAY BE STRONG...THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
IS RATHER WEAK.  SO I DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY CANT BE
RULED OUT.  ILL BASE FIRST PERIOD RAIN CHANCES LARGELY OFF OF LAST
MINUTE GLANCES AT THE RADAR...BUT IN GENERAL...ILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND SOUTH...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE
MIDDLE.  MOST OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK.  THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE STATE LINE THROUGH THURSDAY.  DISTURBANCES...
IMINATING FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...
WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH THE FRONT (AS WELL AS OTHER MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES) TO ALLOW A PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SEEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  THE BIG QUESTION
LIES IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE BEST COVERAGE.  SINCE
THERES NO BIG CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WE
DONT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THE (MAINLY) AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

UNFORTUNATELY...DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 APPEAR TO CONTINUE THE STORY OF
SAME FORECAST...DIFFERENT PACKAGE.  ANOTHER FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES
AS IT HEADS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
PUSH A FRONT INTO THE DELTA REGION...BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.  WITH REALLY NOTHING UPSTREAM TO PUSH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (THUS CHANGING
THE WEATHER PATTERN)...THIS PACKAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY
PERSISTENCE.  GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...I WOULD
EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER
FURTHER EAST WHERE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC FORCING IS
BEST.
&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

BUTTS/CAMPBELL/BANNAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
725 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
301225-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
725 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH  THIS EVENING.  STRONG  WINDS... DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

A STALLED FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE HEATING...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
REMAIN CAPABLE OF BLOWING OVER TREES DUE TO SOAKED GROUNDS.
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

...FLOODING...
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST FOR ANOTHER
DAY. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT  DEVELOP TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.  LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR URBAN AREAS MAY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...ALONG WITH MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS...STREAMS...CULVERTS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. SEVERAL
RIVERS AROUND THE REGION WERE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...SO ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY WORSEN CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK...HAS CAUSED THE GROUND AROUND THE
REGION TO BECOME SATURATED. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THE STEADY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE...WITH MORE
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...CULVERTS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERAL RIVERS AROUND THE AREA WERE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY WORSEN
CONDITIONS.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1057 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MONTICELLO              31.55N 90.11W
06/28/2004                   LAWRENCE           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW ROADS FLOODED IN MONTICELLO.

0635 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MERIDIAN                32.38N 88.71W
06/28/2004                   LAUDERDALE         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL ROADS AND BUSINESSES FLOODED IN THE DOWNTOWN
            AREA.

&&

JPG