Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

.SHORT TERM...
I AM ANTICIPATING A RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING DUE TO TWO FACTORS:
LOSS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND EBBING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS
A SHEAR AXIS STALLS WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE ONLY AREA WHERE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE CWA AND EVEN HERE THUNDER SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WET GROUND OVER THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD MAKE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS A CERTAINTY FOR LATER TONIGHT...BUT
DENSE FOG IS GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR TOMORROW...THE STALLED SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THE 12Z GFS HAS 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF MS UP TO 594
DECAMETERS BY EVENING AND THIS WOULD IMPLY SOME BACKGROUND
ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS FACTOR WILL
RESULT IN MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BEING LESS PERVASIVE THAN THAT SEEN TODAY. KEPT LIKELY WORDING
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKLAMISS WHERE FORCING AND CONVERGENCE WILL
BE GREATEST. ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
ADDITIONALLY...MUCH WEAKER WIND PROFILES FROM 500 MB DOWN TO THE
SURFACE SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION
AND NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED. I WENT ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TOMORROW TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH LITTLE WAVER IN INTENSITY. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS SO
HIGHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS - WORKING
OUT TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN THIRD WITH LOW END CHANCE
WORDING ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN UP IN THE 90S BOTH DAYS AND I
WENT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THAT REGARD.

.LONG TERM...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EURO MODEL RUNS ARE STILL WANTING TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE TIME VICINITY OF THIS SUNDAY.
IM STILL NOT BUYING THIS YET BUT I DID KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN UP AT
OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO HEDGE AGAINST A
STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER FACTOR IN FAVOR OF THIS
STANCE IS THE EXPECTED BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL KEEP US
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE-WISE THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
303 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
172003-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
303 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...FLOODING...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES  IN A HOUR. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME
MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEK AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED   THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
316 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LOUISVILLE              33.12N 89.05W
06/16/2004                   WINSTON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREETS FLOODED IN DOWNTOWN LOUISVILLE.

&&

LJW