Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004

.SHORT TERM...
QUIETER AFTERNOON ACROSS MY CWFA...HOWEVER IN SPITE OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. TEMPS HAVE RETURNED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER
MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT OVER FAR NE ZONES WHERE RAIN AND CLOUDS
LINGERED MUCH OF THE MORNING. EXPECT THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
TO PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET...AND DIE OUT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW JUST
TO THE WEST OF MY CWFA. FOCUSING MECHANISMS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...HOWEVER AS WAS PROVEN THIS AFTERNOON... AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE CAN BE ACHIEVED. FOR TOMORROW...
PLACED CHANCE POPS OVER MY WESTERN ZONES AND TAPERED TO SLIGHT
CHANCE IN EASTERN ZONES. PLACED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO FOCUS HIGHEST CHANCES IN MY WEST.
TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL HOVER AROUND 70 EXCEPT IN
EASTERN ZONES WHERE UPPER 60S ARE MORE LIKELY. KEPT HIGHS BOTH TUES
AND WED IN THE UPPER 80S...AS SFC MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CU FIELDS
SHOULD PREVENT US FROM SURGING OVER THE 90 DEGREE MARK. WE/LL GET
CLOSE...BUT ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS SHOULD REACH 90.

THURSDAY...A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL EDGE THE
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW TOWARD MS. AM AGAIN EXPECTING DIURNAL TSRA
DEVELOPMENT THIS DAY. KEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...NEAR 86/87...AS
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS MORE CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO STAY ABOVE AVERAGE...NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...
DAY TO DAY CONSISTENCY REMAINS SOLID AMONGST THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE.
THE EURO...UKMET AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE SPREAD OFFERED FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS THE WAY THE OPS GFS HANDLES A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEKEND. ITS SLOWER SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS AN
OUTLIER VERSUS ALL OTHER GUIDANCE AND WAS NOT FOLLOWED THIS PACKAGE.

WITH CONTINUED MODEL CONSISTENCY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO
THE PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH ENTERS THE WESTERN CONUS BY
MIDWEEK WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY PERIOD.
THIS WILL SHIFT DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE TX/LA/OK/ARK REGION OVER MS.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION. TOUGH TO TIME ANY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW THIS FAR IN ADVANCE THAT WOULD PRODUCE MORE
ORGANIZE CONVECTION...THUS FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVING SAID THIS...CANNOT RULE OUT A DISTURBANCE PACKAGE
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE FRI AND SAT
NIGHTS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CAVEAT THE PAST FEW DAYS...ANY SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT FORECAST
VALUES. OTHERWISE...MAINTAINED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...LOWS NEAR
70S.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...OPS GFS DIFFERS FROM THE OPS EURO AND GFS
ENSEMBLES INTO MONDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE EURO AND ENSEMBLES...HAVING
THE WESTERN TROUGH FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
MOVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT/S TOO FAR OUT
TO SPECULATE IF ANY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...BUT AT
A MINIMUM...IT/S PRESENCE TO THE WEST/NORTH OF MY CWFA SHOULD
PROVIDE A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA AND
INTRODUCED MONDAY WITH CHANCE POPS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON    69  89  70  88  70 /  20  40  20  40
MERIDIAN   66  89  68  88  68 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

GAGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
242 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
081942-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
242 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORM MAY BECOME
STRONG...MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO FOREST
TO HATTIESBURG...AND PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. STORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY...JUNE 14TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT ... SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
109 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E WEST POINT          33.61N 88.58W
06/07/2004                   CLAY               MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER WAS OVER A PORTION OF HIGHWAY 50 E IN THE EASTERN
            PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      COLUMBUS                33.51N 88.40W
06/07/2004                   LOWNDES            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS CAUSED SEVERAL STREETS IN THE
            CITY TO FLOOD. IN ADDITION...A FEW ROADS AROUND THE
            COUNTY ARE ALSO FLOODED.

&&

ENTREMONT