Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT SUN JUN 6 2004

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENTLY...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE
TSRA HAS DEVELOPED IN ALONG A LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MS WHERE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST ALLOWED TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER 80S. WITH NEAR 70S DEWPOINTS...THIS RESULTED IN SFC BASED
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF -2 TO -6
LIS. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD BUT INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS LINE
WILL GRADUALLY LOSE INTENSITY...BUT STAY IN TACT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MS. OTHERWISE...CLOSE TO THE CORE OF THE MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL MS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF NORTH MS
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE. BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN IN MY EAST THIS EVENING AND MY NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD HOVER NEAR 70 MOST AREAS...EXCEPT UPPER 60S IN
MY NORTHEAST.

TOMORROW AND TUESDAY...WARM AND HUMID WILL BE THE RULE. AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS COULD BREAK THE
90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON THESE DAYS...WITH LOW
TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...
MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
A FEW DIFFERENCES VERSUS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. THUS...ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A FAIRLY STOUT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
PLUG OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON WED IS
NOW PROGGED TO DO SO A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
THIS SHOULDN/T MATTER TOO MUCH ON WED AS ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALREADY BE AVAILABLE TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAT OF
THE DAY CONVECTION...OPTED CONTINUED CHANCE POPS.

EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUG OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THURS AND FRI AS THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE PLAINS STATES.
A SERIES OF HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES WITH PASS NEAR OR THROUGH THE
REGION THURS THROUGH SAT AND HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS THESE DAYS.
WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED...TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR
TWO WITH THE CAVEAT THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPS. THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...
FLATTENING OUR RIDGE AND RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.  HAVE
INTRODUCED SUN WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND
POPS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON    69  89  70  89  88 / 40  30  20  30
MERIDIAN   67  88  68  89  88 / 60  30  20  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

GAGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
124 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
071824-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
124 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-55
AND SOUTH OF I-20 AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND
PRODUCE CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM.

...FLOODING...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS AND BRING THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP A
QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AND CAUSE PONDING ON ROADS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY...JUNE 13TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
321 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MENDENHALL              31.96N 89.87W
06/06/2004                   SIMPSON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAYS AROUND
            MENDENHALL.

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE BROOKHAVEN         31.61N 90.41W
06/06/2004                   LINCOLN            MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            A FEW TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN A FEW MILES NE OF BROOKHAVEN.
            ONE LARGE TREE FELL ON A BUISNESS IN TOWN.

&&

ENTREMONT