Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  ...CORRECTED FOR TIME AND DATE IN HEADER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...
GENERAL PATTERN TRANSFORMING OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AS LONG
WAVE RIDGING OVER ERN U.S. GIVES WAY TO TROUGH THAT WILL HANG OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW
ZONES WILL WEAKEN AS UPPER SUPPORT PIVOTS OUT OF THE AREA. REMNANTS
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SWD WITH TIME AND WILL LINGER S OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS TODAY SRN
ZONES AS THE CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MARCHES SWD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH SRN ZONES ALONG AND S OF
BOUNDARY...MAINTAINING AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION SRN
ZONES MOST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL DRAG
ANOTHER BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY SRN ZONES BEFORE THE
REMNANTS OF THE LAST BOUNDARY FINALLY DROP S OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES FOR NRN ZONES OF SOME CONCERN AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED BEHIND BOUNDARY
TODAY. SOME RECOVERY NOTED AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY BUT
NOTHING CLOSE TO MAGNITUDE OF CURRENT THETAE FIELDS.

MODELS DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
WHAT WILL BE THE BEST BET FOR A CONVECTION FREE AFTERNOON THIS WEEK.
EXTENDED MODELS AGREE THAT NEXT SURFACE LOW SETS UP IN THE SRN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW FOR
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE PERSISTENT FLAT TROUGH ALOFT...
WILL BRUSH AREAS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
547 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
311859-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
547 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO
LOUISIANA...TO CRYSTAL SPRINGS AND QUITMAN MISSISSIPPI LINE.
THIS INCLUDES THE NATCHEZ AND HATTIESBURG AREAS.

A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  THE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND DISTURBANCES ROTATING
THROUGH THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

...FLOODING...
IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...PERSISTENT
DOWNPOURS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.  THIS COULD RESULT IN THE
PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE REGION.  SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES...ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER PART OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PRESENCE
OF THE LINGERING FRONT TO RESULT IN THE RISK OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...JUNE 7.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
535 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BYRAM                   32.18N 90.24W
05/31/2004                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING ON GARY ROAD

&&

XXX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
539 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PELAHATCHIE             32.32N 89.80W
05/31/2004                   RANKIN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER ENTERED HOUSE

&&

XXX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
921 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KOSCIUSKO               33.06N 89.59W
05/31/2004                   ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            8 HOMES WITH ROOF DAMAGE. NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN.
            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF BUSINESSES. 10 CARS WITH WINDOW
            DAMAGE. 1 WOODEN FENCE BLOWN OVER.

&&

XXX