Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING MAINLY WRN AND SRN AREAS.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN TONGUE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
VICINITY OF THE MS RIVER WHILE STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOP IN AREA OF
BEST INFLOW TO THE SOUTH MOVE THIS WAY. ROUND OF STORMS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT NEXT ROUND WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT AS A
HEALTHY SHORTWAVE SHIFTS THIS WAY FROM TEXAS THIS EVENING.

GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TOMORROW...INCREASING
FOR CENTRAL AND NRN ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TRACK OF WAVES IN MID
LEVEL SWLY FLOW AND INCREASE VERTICAL MOTION SOMEWHAT AS UPPER JET
WIND FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY. WILL ADD POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FOR TOMORROW. DEEP MOISTURE BAND SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES MUCH OF AREA. DEEPER
MOISTURE MAINTAINED ERN ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

FLAT WAVES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WEAK INCREASES NOTED IN UPPER JET
FLOW AGAIN...REFLECTED IN LIGHT UPPER DIVERGENCE FORECAST. UPPER
RIDGING DEVELOPS SLIGHTLY WWD AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES PER
MODEL DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE MAINTAINED SO WILL KEEP
POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH FINALLY SHEARS APART AND
THE STRONGER SECTION LIFTS OUT TO THE NE OF THE AREA WHILE THE
WEAKER SRN PORTION LAGS TO THE W.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTS INTO ERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY
EVENING...MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. REMNANTS
OF THE BOUNDARY STALL ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE LIFTING NWD
SUNDAY...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
122005-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
305 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING  WINDS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

A COMPACT...BUT POTENT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BETWEEN TONIGHT AND
LATE TOMORROW.	THE COMBINATION OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT INDUCED BY
THIS DISTURBANCE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY GIVE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOCALLY STRONG. THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RISK OF ANY STRONG STORMS
WILL BE GREATEST THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

...FLOODING...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND UPON PAVED SURFACES. MOST STORMS WILL MOVE FAST
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...BUT CLUSTERS OF STORMS
MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BACK BUILD AND BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL TO ISOLATED LOCATIONS QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH AND A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SOME STORMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, MAY 18.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1249 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HAIL             HATTIESBURG             31.31N 89.31W
05/11/2004  1.00 INCH        FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED BY HATTIESBURG EOC OFFICE

&&

LJW