Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 142235 CCA
FFSJAN
MSC001-063-150000-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
528 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2004

FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR...

JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OVER 
THE AREA. DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF UP TO 2.5 INCHES PER 
HOUR ARE BEING OBSERVED. FURTHERMORE...THE NATCHEZ OBSERVATION SITE 
HAS REPORTED NEARLY 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. 
EXPECTING NO SIGNIFICANT RELEIF IN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION TRAINS OVER THE 
AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED 
BEYOND 7 PM.

$$

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 142355
FFSJAN
MSC001-150000-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
653 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2004

FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ADAMS COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ADAMS COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM. THE 
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED 
EAST. MOSTLY MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS. PONDING ON AREA ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS IS STILL 
EXPECTED...BUT THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. THEREFORE 
THE WARNING IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2004

.SHORT TERM...
STILL EXPECTING A WET TIME OF IT TONIGHT ACROSS A GOOD DEAL OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY FEED OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN BY DAWN SHOULD FALL ALONG THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR - THE MAIN TARGET OF THE NOCTURNAL 850 MB LL JET. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED HERE WITH INTERMITTENT STORMS
IN SOME AREAS BUMPING TOTALS UP TO 4. THE LACK OF PERSISTENT RAIN
IN THIS AREA OF MS BEFORE TONIGHT SHOULD MEAN SUCH PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WILL POSE ONLY A MINOR FLOODING RISK. THE MORE SATURATED AND
VULNERABLE GROUND IN NE LA...SOUTHEAST AR AND WESTERN MS SHOULD LIKELY
SEE LESSER TOTALS (UP TO 2). HAVING SAID ALL THIS...WE WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH GOING TONIGHT FOR THE SAME AREAS. OUR THINKING IS
THAT THE GROUND CAN HANDLE THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED...BUT
THE PROBLEM WILL BE WITH THE EMBEDDED STORMS THAT COULD PUSH HOURLY FFG
VALUES OVER THE LIMIT. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH TO LOOSELY ORGANIZE STORMS WITH A
BIT OF INSTABILITY ON TAP IN SOUTHEAST MS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THESE AREAS THOUGH AND THE OVERRIDING PRESENCE OF
WEAK ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ALL
OTHER CONVECTION FROM GETTING OUT OF HAND.

TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST AND
POINT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FEED AT THE EASTERN HALF OF MS. HOW FAR
WEST OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN AND STORM SHIELD GETS DURING THE DAY
WILL BE CONTROLLED SOMEWHAT BY MESO-SCALE FACTORS...BUT MY BEST GUESS
HAS THE METRO AREA DRYING OUT A BIT BEFORE EVENING...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALL DAY. TEMPS WILL BE KEPT QUITE COOL IN RAINY AREAS OF
EASTERN MS ALTHOUGH HIGH DPS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT MUGGY
CONDITIONS.

BY SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI BOUNDARY WHILE THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER THE REGION...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN MS. ALTHOUGH FORCING
WILL BE FAR REDUCED...STILL ANTICIPATING SCATTERED AFT AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND THE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...
ALTHOUGH A RATHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WE ARE STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION. BOUNDARIES TRAPPED
IN THE BENIGN FLOW IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INSTIGATE CONVECTION DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND PATCHY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 2 TO 5 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD...MAINLY AS THE RESULT OF A 585 TO 588 DECAMETER 500
MB HEIGHT FIELD ENTRENCHED OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON   65 77 63 83 64 / 90 60 30 30 20
MERIDIAN  67 76 65 83 63 / 70 70 40 40 20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MSZ018-019-025>029-032-034>037-040>044-
     047>050-053>055-059>063 TONIGHT.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026 TONIGHT.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ARZ074-075 TONIGHT.

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
150833-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
333 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY	EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55...WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY
EXISTS. STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND THEY WILL BE  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

...FLOODING...
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINFALL EXISTS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALONG AND WEST OF A MONTICELLO TO FOREST TO EUPORA LINE...WHERE
TOTAL RAINFALL COULD REACH 4 INCHES.  PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR MORE DETAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI THAT COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.