Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
316 PM EST MON MAR 1 2004

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
THIS EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CLEARING SLOT FROM NORTHWEST
INDIANA TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  WITH SURFACE HEATING...INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S...AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED.  PREFRONTAL TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS HAS TRIGGERED ONE LINE OF SHOWERS.
OTHER SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS.  APPEARS
THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY OVER LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WEST OF IWX
CWFA...BUT LATE ARRIVAL OF STORMS INTO CWFA...AFT 23Z...MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.  WILL GO WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY...WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL.  AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
PRESENT FOR CU/SC REGENERATION ON TUESDAY...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD
WORK.

GFS...ETA AND NGM MOS NUMBERS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON TEMPERATURE SCHEMES AND
UPSTREAM READINGS.
&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA. GEM IS STILL KEEPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY BUT GFS FOR A COUPLE
OF RUNS NOW HAS PRECIP COMING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ETA DOESNT QUITE
MOVE IT IN BUT GETS IT CLOSE TO OUR CWA. WITH MOST SURROUNDING
OFFICES GOING WITH RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT JUST PUT IN A SMALL CHANCE
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW OVER TEXAS MOVES CLOSER TO US ON
THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS PUSHED AHEAD OF THIS LOW THAT WILL
BE OVER US ON THURSDAY. THE GULF IS ALSO OPEN ON THURSDAY. WITH
THESE GOOD DYNAMICS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES ARE
LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR THURSDAY. GOT RID OF THE SNOW ON THURSDAY AS
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARM AND SOUNDINGS/THICKNESSES ARE INDICATING
ALL RAIN. THERE IS LIKELY POPS IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY HAVE
TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. MEX POPS ARE ALSO VERY
HIGH...LIKELY OR A HIGHER CATEGORY. BY FRIDAY MORNING GFS HAS THE
LOW OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF A LITTLE BIT SLOWER
PUTTING THE LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SNOW IS STILL QUESTIONABLE
ON FRIDAY BUT SINCE THICKNESSES GET CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK LATER
IN THE DAY LEFT THE SNOW IN WITH THE RAIN. THEN LEFT THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND ALONE AS THE MRF HAS REALLY CHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW MODEL
RUNS...WHICH IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE GEM.
&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SC OVER FORECAST AREA WITH MVFR CEILINGS.  IN
CLEAR SLOT OVER ILLINOIS...CU HAS BEEN REGENERATING...SO EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.  NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ENTERING WESTERN ILLINOIS AT 17Z.
AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED IN THIS REGION GIVEN SURFACE HEATING AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
SURFACE LIFTED INDEX VALUES WERE MINUS 3 AT 17Z.  EXPECT ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES TOWARD 00Z AT SBN AND 02Z AT
FWA.  WITH LATE ARRIVAL AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THUNDER STILL
NOT A GIVEN...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH VICINITY WORDING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT SBN BY 04Z AND FWA BY 06Z...THOUGH MVFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE.
&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
628 AM EST MON MAR 1 2004

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-021130-
ADAMS IN-ALLEN OH-ALLEN IN-BERRIEN MI-BLACKFORD IN-BRANCH MI-CASS MI-
CASS IN-DE KALB IN-DEFIANCE OH-ELKHART IN-FULTON OH-FULTON IN-
GRANT IN-HENRY OH-HILLSDALE MI-HUNTINGTON IN-JAY IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-
LA PORTE IN-LAGRANGE IN-MARSHALL IN-MIAMI IN-NOBLE IN-PAULDING OH-
PULASKI IN-PUTNAM OH-ST. JOSEPH MI-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE IN-
STEUBEN IN-VAN WERT OH-WABASH IN-WELLS IN-WHITE IN-WHITLEY IN-
WILLIAMS OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOLA...ARCHBOLD...AUBURN...
BENTON HARBOR...BENTON HEIGHTS...BERNE...BLUFFTON...BREMEN...BRYAN...
BUCHANAN...BUTLER...COLDWATER...COLUMBIA CITY...DECATUR...DEFIANCE...
DELPHOS...DOWAGIAC...DUNKIRK...DUNLAP...ELKHART...FAIR PLAIN...
FAIRMOUNT...FORT SHAWNEE...FORT WAYNE...GARRETT...GAS CITY...
GEORGETOWN...GOSHEN...GRANGER...GRISSOM AFB...GULIVOIRE PARK...
HARTFORD CITY...HICKSVILLE...HILLSDALE...HUNTINGTON...KENDALLVILLE...
KNOX...LA PORTE...LAGRANGE...LIGONIER...LIMA...LOGANSPORT...MARION...
MICHIGAN CITY...MISHAWAKA...MONTICELLO...MONTPELIER...NAPOLEON...
NAPPANEE...NEW HAVEN...NILES...NORTH MANCHESTER...OSSIAN...OTTAWA...
PERU...PLYMOUTH...PORTLAND...ROCHESTER...SIMONTON LAKE...
SOUTH BEND...ST. JOSEPH...STURGIS...SWANTON...SYRACUSE...
THREE RIVERS...TRAIL CREEK...TRI-LAKES...UPLAND...VAN WERT...
WABASH...WARSAW...WAUSEON...WESTVILLE...WINAMAC AND WINONA LAKE
628 AM EST MON MAR 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
THAT SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS ALONG AND WEST OF A COLDWATER MICHIGAN TO FORT WAYNE
TO MARION INDIANA LINE...BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM EST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES, OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX