Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EST FRI JUL 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON POPS AND TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHTNING CHART AND RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND ANOTHER ONE OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND BOTH ARE MOVING EASTWARD.

SURFACE CHART SHOWS SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
TO JUST NORTH OF KIND AND WEST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. A VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS IS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS
THE MID 70S IN SOME AREAS.

MODELS MOVE WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT BUT THEN KEEP
IT QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
WHEN IT FINALLY MOVES NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. EVEN
THOUGH MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THEIR ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP. BELIEVE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SE INDIANA WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS INDICATED BY RUC...SO
WILL GO ONLY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT WILL GO LIKELY POPS NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.  MODELS ALSO SHOW GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND HPC SHOWS ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WILL CUT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY NORTH AND CENTRAL DUE
TO THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ABOUT DEGREE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY...HOWEVER WITH FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD WILL GO
WITH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

IN EXTENDED WILL LEAN TOWARDS NCEP SCENARIO WHICH KEEPS FRONT JUST
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL DAY 7. WILL MENTION CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THIS PERIOD UNTIL DAY 7.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JEH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1240 PM EST FRI JUL 9 2004

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-101032-
BARTHOLOMEW-BOONE-BROWN-CARROLL-CLAY-CLINTON-DAVIESS-DECATUR-
DELAWARE-FOUNTAIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HENDRICKS-HENRY-HOWARD-
JACKSON-JENNINGS-JOHNSON-KNOX-LAWRENCE-MADISON-MARION-MARTIN-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-OWEN-PARKE-PUTNAM-RANDOLPH-RUSH-SHELBY-SULLIVAN-
TIPPECANOE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-VIGO-WARREN-
1240 PM EST FRI JUL 9 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERAL LARGE COMPLEXES OF STORMS MAY IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
COMING WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THE
TIMING OF ANY SUCH CLUSTER OF STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT OUR WEBSITE...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
210 PM EST FRI JUL 9 2004

INZ056-091930-
SHELBY-
210 PM EST FRI JUL 9 2004

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SHELBY COUNTY THROUGH
230 PM. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
STATE ROAD 44. TORRENTIAL RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 PM EST FRI JUL 9 2004

INZ072-092001-
JENNINGS-
235 PM EST FRI JUL 9 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF JENNINGS COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM. SOME OF THE STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE ALONG US 50.
TORRENTIAL RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
414 PM EST FRI JUL 09 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             INDIANAPOLIS            39.78N 86.15W
07/09/2004  0.88 INCH        MARION             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SALLY