Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
215 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY SHOWING COLD UPPER LOW SWIRLING
ACRS NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. 500 MB TEMPS OUT TO OUR WEST -20C CREATING
SOME STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES. ONE VORT LOBE PUSHING BAND OF SHOWERS
ACRS NRN IL SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FCST AREA. CU AND
TOWERING CU FIELD EXPANDING ACRS SRN IA AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO
OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN NOW IN CNTRL IL. MAIN
FCST CHALLENGE WL BE COVERAGE OF PRECIP THIS EVENING...AND PRECIP
CHANCES THE NEXT SVL DAYS AS UPPER LOW HOLDS OVR THE GREAT LAKES.
LONGER TERM CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING OF NEXT SIGNIFICANT BNDRY INTO
OUR AREA AND PRECIP CHANCES ALONG IT NEXT WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERNECES
NOTED IN MODELS WITH HANDLING OF GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW AFTER 24 HOURS
BUT REALLY NOT THAT SIGNFICANT FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX. WL COVER THE
SHORTER TERM WITH THE ETA MODEL...WITH THE GFS FAVORED IN THE LONGER
TERM.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACRS OUR FCST AREA THIS AFTN SHOULD
GRDLY DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTR SUNSET. UNTIL THEN...WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND LOW LVL INSTABILITY...COULD BE SOME HAILERS...ESP ACRS
THE NORTH. GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AFTR SUNSET ACRS THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA. SFC LOW TO TRACK ACRS CNTRL LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY
WITH WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN DURING THE AFTN. ETA BUFKIT DATA SUGGESTS
30 TO 35 KT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SFC DURING THE AFTN...SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY. SCT PRECIP TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING TIME AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS COLD UPPER AIR TEMPS COMBINE WITH LOW LVL WARMING TO
PRODUCE SOME FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WEAK SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON MODEL
DATA SHEARING THRU THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACRS CNTRL IL WL ADD TO THE
LIFT OVR THE AREA ON TUESDAY. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
ROTATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY TO HELP
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY DIURNAL PRECIP ACRS THE FCST AREA.
A BLEND BETWEEN THE MAV AND FWC GUID SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO OVR
THE NEXT SVL DAYS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS SHOWING A WEAK SFC BNDRY SHIFTING SOUTH ACRS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY BUT LOW AND MID LVL RH VALUES NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY
PRECIP...SO FOR NOW WL KEEP THU DRY OVR CNTRL IL. AFTER THAT...UPPER
LOW SLOWLY FILLS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE LAKES REGION LEAVING US IN
A W-NW FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANY MCS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE SRN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVES
IN FLAT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND ACRS THE MIDWEST. USING A BLEND
OF THE ECMWF/UK AND CANADIAN SUGGESTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK
APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACRS CNTRL IL. A MORE
SUMMER LIKE PATTERN RETURNS TO THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
SUGGEST LNGWV TROF TO SETTLE INTO THE WEST COAST ALLOWING MORE OF A
W-SW FLOW ACRS OUR AREA. STRONGER FLOW ACRS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER
SUGGESTS BEST AREA FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH TEMPS AOA NORMAL FOR OUR AREA.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

&&

SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1231 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-011100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...CHAMPAIGN...DANVILLE...
DECATUR...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...GALESBURG...HAVANA...JACKSONVILLE...
LAWRENCEVILLE...LINCOLN...MATTOON...PEORIA...SHELBYVILLE...
SPRINGFIELD AND TAYLORVILLE
1231 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

BYRD