Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
200 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ONGOING ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BOUNDARY HAS SET UP FROM NEAR CMI TO NORTH OF STL THEN ALONG I-70 IN
MISSOURI. MUCH OF THE INITIATION HAS BEEN ELEVATED NORTH OF THAT
BOUNDARY...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR ALSO RATHER
IMPRESSIVE FOR AUGUST WITH SPI ETA FORECAST SOUNDING ROTATING FROM
180/35KT AT 900 MB TO 260/30 KT AT 700 MB BY 00Z. HIGHEST THREAT FOR
TORNADOES SHOULD BE NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA
WITH POSSIBILITY OF HAIL FURTHER NORTH.  HOWEVER...CLEARING IN NWRN
IL MAY ALLOW ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD THAT AREA FROM IA TO BECOME
SURFACE BASED.  IN ADDITION TO TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT...ECHOES ALSO
APPEAR LIKELY NEAR SOUTHERNMOST BOUNDARY.  WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCH
FOR CENTRAL ZONES.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
LACK OF FOCUS MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION UNTIL FRONT APPROACHES FROM
NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT.  WILL KEEP POPS LOW UNTIL EVENING. HEAT
INDICIES MAY REACH ABOVE 100 IN WEST ON THURSDAY AS DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S COMBINE WITH HIGHS NEAR 90F.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ETA PUSHES FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF CWA FRIDAY AND THEN PRODUCES
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING FRONT THROUGH. FAVOR ETA
GIVEN STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS AND STRENGTH OF NORTHERN PLANS SURFACE
HIGH. EITHER WAY BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER WEEKEND SHOULD
BE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS NORTH OF
FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD BE NOTICABLY COOLER. DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLOOD WATCH ZONES 40>57...61...FOR TONIGHT.

&&

BARKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1022 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-252200-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...CHAMPAIGN...DANVILLE...
DECATUR...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...GALESBURG...HAVANA...JACKSONVILLE...
LAWRENCEVILLE...LINCOLN...MATTOON...PEORIA...SHELBYVILLE...
SPRINGFIELD AND TAYLORVILLE
1022 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A SHELBYVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A COUPLE OF UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY CAUSING LOCAL FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH ILLINOIS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

EH/KELLY