Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...TWO MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS AT LEAST THRU WED INCLUDE
CONVECTION CHANCES AND TEMPS. THE ETA MODEL WAS ONCE AGAIN USED WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE GFS
IS HAVING ITS USUAL CONVECTIVE FEEBACK PROBLEMS. FURTHER OUT...THE
UK...ECMWF AND GFSLR ALL INDICATE A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH...RESULTING IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL KEEP THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKENED.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SHORT WAVE TROF PUSHING ACRS ERN IA AND MO ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SPEED
MAX RESPONSIBLE FOR SPARKING OFF CONVECTION OVR CNTRL IL LATE THIS
MORNING WHICH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING WITH THE
MAIN CHALLENGE BEING  WHERE AND WHEN ANY CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE
TNT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IF AT ALL. MCS MACROS SUGGESTING REDEVELOPMENT
LATE TNT ACRS KS AND NRN OK...BUT THAT SHOULD MOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY PRODUCED BY TODAYS MCS. THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES
A BIT MORE REDEFINED IN OUR AREA BY MORNING...HOWEVER LOW LVL FLOW NOT
REALLY SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. HAVE HAD POPS GOING FOR TNT
SO WL BACK OFF ANYTHING THIS EVENING AND HAVE LOW POPS FOR THE 09Z TO
12Z TIME FRAME. PARAMETERS BUT A BIT MORE FAVORABLE ON MONDAY AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF PULLS OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH A BNDRY BACK INTO OUR NEIGHBORHOOD AGAIN LATE
IN THE DAY INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR STORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING THETA-E ADV...LOW AND MID LVL WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PUSH CLOSE TO CNTRL IL. 500 MB
TROF SHIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO
WED MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST IN THE AFTN.
CURRENT GRIDS HAVE NO PRECIP MENTIONED IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND FOR NOW THAT LOOKS OK...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST AREA HAVING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER PATTERN TAKING ON MORE OF A SUMMER LOOK AS WE HEAD INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE
ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING SOME CONSENSUS
WITH THIS EVOLUTION WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...ESP ACRS THE NORTH. BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WIND FIELDS FOR ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS DO SHOW
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY
WHICH WILL TRY TO DRAG A FRONT INTO PARTS OF LOWER LAKES. WL KEEP THE
SILENT 20S GOING SAT AND HAVE CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

&&

SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1132 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

ILZ066>068-071>073-051100-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EFFINGHAM...FLORA AND LAWRENCEVILLE
1132 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-051100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-
MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-
VERMILION-WOODFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...CHAMPAIGN...DANVILLE...
DECATUR...GALESBURG...HAVANA...JACKSONVILLE...LINCOLN...MATTOON...
PEORIA...SHELBYVILLE...SPRINGFIELD AND TAYLORVILLE
1132 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

AUTEN