Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
200 PM EDT MON MAY 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC WERE SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACRS THE CWFA THIS AFTN.  WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LVL MSTR...AND WEAK VORT LOBE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTN/EVENING...WILL BE CARRYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.  WILL
TRY TO END THE CONVECTION AROUND MIDNIGHT...WHEN VORT LOBE HAS
PASSED BY...AND INSTABILITY DECREASES DUE TO LOSS OF SUNSHINE.

OTHERWISE...NEXT SIGNIFICANT WX MAKER WAS A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER
THE UPR MS VLY...EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ETA/GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WHICH BOTH DROP THIS FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY
AFTN...THEN STALL THE FRONT ACRS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  FCST CAPE VALUES FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTN WILL BE IN THE
1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE.  THESE VALUES...COMBINED WITH LOW LVL CONV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WILL BE AMPLE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT
HIGH LIKELY POPS IN THE NW ON TUESDAY AFTN.  SINCE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ALL NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DUE TO AN
APPROACHING S/WV MOVING OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS IN THE SRN CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LATE
TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING COULD BE OUR FIRST REAL SEVERE WX OUTBREAK
THIS SPRING.  SEVERE WX THREAT WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A FLOOD
THREAT TUESDAY NIGHT AS PCPN EFFICIENCY VALUES APCH 1.75
INCHES...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FCST TO RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  FFG VALUES ARE NOT THAT LOW.  HOWEVER...FIRST LINE OF
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD MOISTEN THE SOIL.
ANY SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING.  MIDNIGHT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE FOR A POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERALL...KEPT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  WEDNESDAY MAY BE TRICKY IN TERMS OF TEMPS...BEING
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING TRENDS ON
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

&&

HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
558 AM EDT MON MAY 17 2004

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-099-100-OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>073-077>082-088-171157-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-LOGAN OH-
MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-OHIO IN-OWEN KY-
PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-ROSS OH-
SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-UNION IN-WARREN OH-
WAYNE IN-
558 AM EDT MON MAY 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE TUESDAY.

 TIPTON