Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
327 PM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NW OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN THE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  WIND FIELDS WERE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT CAPES WERE OVER 2000 J/KG AND WBZ(S) WERE IN
THE RANGE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL.  ALSO MAX DELTA THETA-E(S) ON A
MODIFIED 12Z ILN SOUNDING WAS 23...SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  THE SPC HAS PUT THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
IN A SVR TS WATCH UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE BNDRY WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST
AREA.  BOTH THE GFS AND ETA SHOW DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE WITH THE
BNDRY AND PW(S) ARE PROGGED OVER 1.6 INCHES.  BASED ON CURRENT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT...AND FCST QPF...IT APPEARS
THAT FLOODING COULD BE A PROBLEM AS THE BNDRY STRADDLES THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE...HAVE PUT THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
IN A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10Z WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM CURRENT TEMPS AND NOT MANY CHANGES TO REST
OF SHORT TERM IN GENERAL. BY CONSENSUS...THE BNDRY WILL MOVE NORTH
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES
INZ050...INZ058>059...INZ066.

KY...NONE.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES OHZ026...
OHZ034>035...OHZ042>046...OHZ051>056...OHZ060>065...OHZ070>072...
OHZ074.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-181100-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
AND INDIANA. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO
HEAVY RAINERS...MAKING FLOODING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MONDAY.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

 TIPTON