Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
440 PM EDT TUE APR 20 2004

.SHORT TERM...
MOST OF FCST LEANS TOWARDS THE ETA SOLUTION WITH A SLIGHT NOD TO THE
GFS THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS IS EXPERIENCING SOME SERIOUS
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND APPEARS TO NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON UPCOMING NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A GFS
SOLUTION WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURS NIGHT AND FRI. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THOUGHTS THAT THE ETA IS TOO AMPLIFIED TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK.

WMFNT HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED NE OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY STILL GET THUNDER THROUGH
SUNSET WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. DEWPOINTS
ARE PRETTY STIFLING IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS PM WHICH WILL ALSO HELP
THE CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

REST OF FCST CONCENTRATES ON COLD FRONT MOVING INTO FCST AREA
TOMORROW NIGHT AND STALLING OVER SERN FCST AREA ON THURS. LIKELY
POPS WERE PUT IN FOR MOST OF CWA WED/WED NIGHT AND HAVE BUMPED UP TO
CATEGORICAL ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE RIDING UP ALONG BOUNDARY.
ETA SHOWING A STRONG CUTOFF WITH DRIER AIR BEING PUSHED INTO NW FCST
AREA DURING THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPERATURES, HAVE DECREASED HIGHS IN THE NW ON WED BY A FEW
DEGREES DUE TO PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...CONVERSELY HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY FOR THE SAME TIME IN THE SE WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. THURS NIGHT HAS TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 OHRIVER. WOULD THINK COOLER BASED
ON ETA SOLUTION, BUT MODELLERS ARE TELLING US THAT ITS A BIT TOO
AMPLIFIED OF A SYSTEM AND BRINGS IN COLDER AIR THAN SHOULD BE
AVAILABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SINCE SHORT TERM IS FOLLOWING MORE OF AN ETA SOLUTION...WILL KEEP
ONLY LOW CHC POP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...IF ETA IS
COMPLETELY RIGHT...IT VERY WELL MAY END UP DRY ON FRIDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
ADVANCE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BROAD UPR LVL TROF BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES.  IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE KEPT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY DRY...BUT MAY VERY WELL CHANGE IF WEAK
S/WV BECOMES EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

&&

FRANKS/HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 AM EDT TUE APR 20 2004

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-201100-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
500 AM EDT TUE APR 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENTS MAY OCCUR WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY.

AR