Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
405 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2004

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF DAY AND CMH.
KILN AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT.  SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.  LATEST RUC SHOWS MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 200 M2/S2.

MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
THE ETA IS A BIT SLOWER WITH COLD FROPA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.  THE GFS ALSO HAS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ON
FRIDAY.

THAT BEING SAID COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY AM.  COLD FRONT NORTH OF I-70 WILL SLIDE SOUTH THIS
EVENING.  THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATTER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRIDAY MORNING MOST IF NOT ALL FA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER WE COULD HEAT UP NICELY BEFORE CONVECTIVE
INITIATES OR MOVES INTO FA.  AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND TIMING WILL
PLAY HUGE ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH.  AT THE MOMENT COVERAGE
LOOKS GOOD FROM FRIDAY AFT INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS ANOTHER COOL HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.  THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECASTED TO BE OVER
OH/IN/NRN KY THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF AND POTENTIALLY SOME
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ONCE AGAIN...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM EACH
OTHER...SO WILL USE 00Z GFS AND HPC SFC FRONTAL GUIDANCE IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.  SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.  GIVEN COOL START AND WAA DEVELOPING LATE...TEMPS
WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WX IS EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND A RETURN S TO SW FLOW
DEVELOPS.  THIS WILL SIGNAL A WARMING TREND ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TUESDAY/S TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALLOWS LOW LVL MSTR TO INCREASE...BRINGING A THREAT FOR AN AFTN AND
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

NEXT MAJOR FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY.  AGAIN...TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...

THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2004.

AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE CAPPED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA AS
LITTLE IF ANY CU HAVE POPPED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE FRONT...WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RUC STILL SHOWING SURFACE TO 925 MB CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND
THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THINK
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS AREA FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL CARRY A VCTS AT KDAY...KILN
AND KCMH FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHEN/IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP...WILL THEN TRY TO FINE TUNE TIMING OF ACTUAL
STORMS. FURTHER SOUTH AT KCVG AND KLUK WILL JUST CARRY A CB TO COVER
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS THERE.

FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY END UP IN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...THINK BEST THREAT
FOR PCPN WILL BE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION
OF PCPN AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE LATER PERIODS.
&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...JGL
SHORT TERM...TIPTON
LONG TERM...SFH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
502 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2004

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-200905-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
502 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SINCE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
TODAY...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARYSVILLE              40.24N 83.37W
08/19/2004                   UNION              OH   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

TIPTON