Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
252 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER AIR CHART HAS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING TODAY AS A TROF
MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  TROF AXIS IS PROGGED
TO BE OVER ILN AT AROUND 00Z TUESDAY.  FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND
DRY OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE MAP HAS A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SURFACE CONVERGENCE UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SAGS DOWN INTO AND THROUGH THE
REGION.

FIRST FORECAST PROBLEM INVOLVES DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 460
HAS BEEN ISSUED IN LIGHT OF THE SEVERE THREAT. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAKE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...WITH LARGE
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH WET BULB ZERO JUST BELOW 11 KFT.  MODELS
TIME SEVERE WEATHER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
MAXIMUM INSTABILITY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE.

WILL RAISE POPS TO 60 ALL ZONES FOR THIS EVENING...SCALING BACK TO
SLIGHT BY LATE TONIGHT.  WILL KEEP 60 POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT INCREASING.  GFS AND ETA AGREE
IN BRINGING FRONT THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY SO IM GOING WITH CHANCE
POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN DRYING OUT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS:  MAINLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT IM RAISING
TUESDAY NIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT THE REGION WED...MOVING SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY 00Z FRI. HI PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FRI BUT WILL
BE SHORT LIVED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL EFFECT THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN MORE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
DIFFICULT. HAVE ADDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WED. CONINTUED
CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF FA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS. ADDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DRY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. JUST A FEW SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

&&

CONIGLIO/PARKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
517 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-140916-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
517 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS AIR MASS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION WITH THE GROUND REMAINING MOIST...IF TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS...FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK...THEREFORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ANYTIME TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

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