Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
320 PM EDT JUN 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
S/WV MOVNG INTO INDIANA ATTM WITH TSTMS BECOMING MORE ROBUST BTWN
KCVG AND KSDF.  TSTM THAT JUST WENT THRU KCVG PRODUCED 38 KT GUST
AND LKLY SOME SMALL HAIL.  MORE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DVLP TO
NORTH OF I-70 BTWN KIND AND KDAY ALONG SFC TROF/CONFLUENCE BNDRY.

SHORT TERM FCST WILL FOCUS ON CHANCE FOR TSTMS FOR LATE AFTN/EVNG.
SERIES OF S/WVS VERY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SAT WILL ROTATE THRU
FCST AREA OVER NEXT 6-8 HOURS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING SRH
VALUES ABV 200 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES APPCHG 40 KTS.  SHEAR
WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN TSTMS AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SVR STORMS. SPC
HAS PLACED MUCH OF FCST AREA IN SLGT RISK FOR SVR STORMS.  HAIL AND
WIND DMG BOTH POSSIBLE...WITH WBZERO LEVELS BTWN 7-8KFT (PLENTY COLD
AIR ALOFT) AND DELTA THETA-E VALUES AROUND 15K.  GREATEST RISK FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING
EAST INTO EVNG.  CIN VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 J/KG BY LATE
EVNG AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT TSTMS WILL WEAKEN BY
04Z. GENERALLY DRY FOR REMAINDER OF NIGHT AS WEAK NVA DVLPS BEHIND
EVNG S/WVS.

FRNTL BNDRY ALONG ELONGATED UPR TROF WILL SWING SOUTH INTO FCST AREA
DURING THE DAY WED.  MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED AND DECENT LO LVL CONV
SUGGEST GOOD CHANCE FOR SHRA.  WEAK INSTABILITY DVLPG DURING AFTN
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FEW TSTMS...BUT AT THIS POINT SVR POTENTIAL LOOKS
MINIMAL TO NIL.  BOTH ETA/GFS SWINGING UPR TROF AXIS THRU REGION
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREV RUNS WED EVNG.  FRNTL BNDRY/UPR TROF AXIS
EAST OF FCST AREA BY 06Z THURS...WITH SFC HI PRES BUILDING INTO
REGION.  DRY WX FOR THURS/FRI AS HI PRES MOVES ACRS OH VLY/LWR GRT
LKS AND UPR LVL RIDGING DVLPS.

TEMPS...MAV GUID LOOKED GOOD AND FOLLOWED THRU THURS NIGHT.  WITH
SFC HI PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER REGION THURS NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES
AND LGT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT.  COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
DROP INTO U40S ACRS NRN FCST AREA.

EXTENDED...AS SFC HI SHIFTS EAST OF FCST AREA FRI...SW RETURN FLO
WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER BACK INTO OH VLY.  FRNTL
BNDRY WILL APPCH FCST AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH NEXT CHANCE OF TSTMS

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

&&

RYAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-010900-
ADAMS OH-AUGLAIZE OH-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-BUTLER OH-
CAMPBELL KY-CARROLL KY-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-CLERMONT OH-CLINTON OH-
DARKE OH-DEARBORN IN-DELAWARE OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FAYETTE IN-
FRANKLIN OH-FRANKLIN IN-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-
HARDIN OH-HIGHLAND OH-HOCKING OH-KENTON KY-LEWIS KY-LICKING OH-
LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MASON KY-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
OHIO IN-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-PREBLE OH-RIPLEY IN-
ROBERTSON KY-ROSS OH-SCIOTO OH-SHELBY OH-SWITZERLAND IN-UNION OH-
UNION IN-WARREN OH-WAYNE IN-
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-012200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1105 AM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS IT
DOES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 3 PM EDT AND 6 PM EDT. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER ALL HAZARDS RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EDT TUE JUN 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW BOSTON              38.75N 82.93W
05/31/2004                   SCIOTO             OH   OTHER FEDERAL

            LARGE LIMBS AND BRANCHES DOWN

&&

RLG

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