Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
950 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...
HOWEVER EXPECT SOME WARMING ALOFT AS A POCKET OF -12C AIR PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -7 TO -9C
RANGE. DIFFUSE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE 70S. GOOD CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
EXPECT AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH SMALL SCALE CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO BE THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL MECHANISMS.
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATE REQUIRED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTH...BUT STILL SOME BAGGINESS NOTED IN THE PRESSURE PATTERN
ACROSS SC.  THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TO KEEP WINDS IN THE 10 KT RANGE INITIALLY...BUT EXPECT GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN UP THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE GETS ORGANIZED OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH.  WILL WORK A LITTLE MORE DETAIL INTO FIRST PERIOD WIND
FORECAST.  SEAS STILL 4 FT AT 41013...BUT 2-3 FT LOOKS ACCEPTABLE IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.  OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

.ILM FORECAST TEAM...
PUBLIC: PFAFF
MARINE: RAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1055 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-181000-
BLADEN-BRUNSWICK-COLUMBUS-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-GEORGETOWN-
HORRY-MARION-MARLBORO-NEW HANOVER-PENDER-ROBESON-WILLIAMSBURG-
1055 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES FROM BALD HEAD ISLAND TO SURFSIDE
BEACH. THE RIP CURRENTS WILL BE STRONGEST A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE
OF LOW TIDE WHICH OCCURS 215 PM EDT.

A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SRP