Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
229 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IS JUST WAITING
FOR A TRIGGER TO PRODUCE POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND VARIOUS
BOUNDARIES FROM THE SEABREEZE AND EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIGHT UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAIL AND WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. CAPE VALUES ARE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG AND SHEAR
PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR MULTI-CELLULAR STORM AND MAYBE A
ROTATING SUPERCELL OR TWO...PARTICULARLY WHERE LOCAL HELICITY
VALUES ARE ENHANCED BY A BOUNDARY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL
RUN THROUGH 8 PM EDT.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THICK CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM A HUGE
CONVECTIVE BLOB IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP SKIES
OVERCAST. AS THE CIRRUS CLEARS...A STRENGTHENING CONVERGENT LOW AND
MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S/SE WILL SPREAD A SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WAVE SHOULD ADVECT EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY IF THE CONVECTIVE BAND PERSISTS LIKE THE
ETA SEEMS TO INDICATE. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES
BECOMES MORE AND MORE UNCERTAIN. HAVE GONE WITH MID RANGE POPS WITH
EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF UPPER VORTS FROM THE ETA. THE GFS IS OVERCOME
BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...BUT THE ETA SUGGESTS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
FINALLY SWEEP ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING...ENDING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING AGENT SO HAVE CUT POPS BACK TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NC COUNTIES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS DRY WITH A MODERATING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...AND THEN OFFSHORE. HIGHS FOR THE
WEEKEND SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S.

&&

.MARINE...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN N AND NW OF THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND MON KEEPING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SHARPEN DURING MON AND WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MET BY THAT TIME. WILL CONTINUE
TO HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT POSSIBLE FOR MON AND LET LATER SHIFTS RAISE
THE FLAG. FAVORED ETA WIND FIELD OVER THE GFS GIVEN THE PROBLEMS IT
HAS BEEN HAVING LATELY...PLUS THE GFS SPEEDS LOOK OVERDONE. ETA
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FRONT PASSING OFF THE COAST TUE NIGHT ALLOWING
THE WIND DIRECTION TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. A TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WED MAY RESULT IN A WIND DIRECTION MORE S OF W BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME NW AS THE TROUGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST THU.
WAVEWATCH ARE LIKELY OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY MON-TUE GIVEN THE
OVERDONE GFS WIND FIELD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WILMINGTON     62  73  65  74 /  60  80  50  50
FLORENCE       61  73  62  72 /  80  80  40  50
LUMBERTON      60  71  62  72 /  80  80  40  50
MYRTLE BEACH   63  72  65  71 /  70  70  40  50

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #68 UNTIL 800 PM ALL COUNTIES.
SC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #68 UNTIL 800 PM ALL COUNTIES.

PUBLIC...TRA
MARINE...SRP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
340 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2004

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-111139-
BLADEN-BRUNSWICK-COLUMBUS-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-GEORGETOWN-
HORRY-MARION-MARLBORO-NEW HANOVER-PENDER-ROBESON-WILLIAMSBURG-
340 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON...EVENING AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH 8 PM...
FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING MULTICELL LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. LATER TONIGHT...MORE
GENERAL RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ON MONDAY WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND SOME OF THESE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS WELL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS EVENING TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
537 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             TAR HEEL                34.73N 78.79W
04/11/2004  0.75 INCH        BLADEN             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0515 PM     HAIL             6 SW CHADBOURN          34.26N 78.90W
04/11/2004  0.50 INCH        COLUMBUS           NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
555 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2004

NCZ087-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-112355-
COLUMBUS NC-DARLINGTON SC-DILLON SC-FLORENCE SC-MARION SC-MARLBORO
SC-ROBESON NC-
555 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

IN AT 550 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING
OVER DARLINGTON...FLORENCE....DILLON...ROBESON...AND BLADEN
COUNTIES. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH

THESE THUNDERSTROMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES.
THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP:

TM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
634 PM EDT SUN APR 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             FLORENCE                34.20N 79.76W
04/11/2004  0.25 INCH        FLORENCE           SC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAIN

0608 PM     HAIL             5 SSE LUMBERTON         34.55N 78.98W
04/11/2004  0.88 INCH        ROBESON            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

0614 PM     HAIL             4 E LUMBERTON           34.62N 78.94W
04/11/2004  0.75 INCH        ROBESON            NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            HEAVY RAIN AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR

0628 PM     HAIL             RAINS                   34.10N 79.32W
04/11/2004  1.00 INCH        MARION             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

JAN