Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
220 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM HAVE STEERED CLOSER TO THE ETA SOLUTION
VERSUS THE FEEDBACK TAINTED GFS RUN. IN ADDITION...ETA VERTICAL
VELOCITY REPRESENTATION IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
PICTURE.

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHILE CLOSER TO
HOME THERE WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA. THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE HAS PROGRESSED FARTHER INLAND THAN IN DAYS PAST...AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER INLAND A TROUGH IS TAKING BETTER SHAPE AND
WITH HEATING WE/RE FINALLY SEEING BETTER VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE
CLOUD FIELD. LAPS PLOT INDICATES CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WOULD EXPECT THE
CURRENT AREAS OF CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PEE DEE AND LUMBERTON AREAS AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES. WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS
EVENING.

VORTICITY MAX WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY 06Z
AND BY THAT TIME THE CORE OF THE LIFT WILL HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE
DELMARVA REGION. LOWERING IN THETA-E WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. ETA HAS
SHOWN CONSISTENCY WITH TAKING THIS FRONT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AND STALLING IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SINCE
THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY WILL CARRY 20-40 POPS DURING THE
WEEKEND...BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DRIFTED NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA MON AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH...THUS PLAN ON KEEPING A
MAINLY DIURNAL POP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ALSO...ENSEMBLE POPS TREND ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DEVIATIONS IN ENSEMBLE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SMALL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THESE
NUMBERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT LOOSENS A LITTLE BETWEEN THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THIS LOW IS LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH THRU THE TENN VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD TOP OUT
AROUND 20 KT BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SUBSIDING A LITTLE LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS AT FRYING PAN SHOALS ARE ONLY 2 FT BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RESPOND
TO THE INCREASED WINDS SOON. SEAS OF UP TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WILL HEADLINE THE CWF WITH EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
TONIGHT ALL WATERS.

GFS BECOMES SO CORRUPT WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WE ARE LEFT WITH
THE ETA FOR FRONTAL TIMING/POSITION FOR DAYS 2-3. THE ETA SEEMS
REASONABLE SHOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND OR JUST BEFORE 12Z
SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT
STALLS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...THE ETA MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
FAST BRINGING THE FRONT BACK THRU THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY
THE FRONT SHOULD BE SAFELY NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A S/SW
FLOW IN PLACE AGAIN. A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE FRONT
STALLING OUT JUST TO THE NORTH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

PUBLIC: PFAFF
MARINE: TRA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
317 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-261000-
BLADEN-BRUNSWICK-COLUMBUS-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-GEORGETOWN-
HORRY-MARION-MARLBORO-NEW HANOVER-PENDER-ROBESON-WILLIAMSBURG-
317 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.  A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
SEVERE.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.  THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS BLADEN AND ROBESON COUNTIES IN NORTH
CAROLINA...AND DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

RAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-260200-
BLADEN-BRUNSWICK-COLUMBUS-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-GEORGETOWN-
HORRY-MARION-MARLBORO-NEW HANOVER-PENDER-ROBESON-WILLIAMSBURG-
323 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2004

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.  LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
 THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN BLADEN AND
ROBESON COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...AND DILLON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CAROLINA.

MONITOR ALL HAZARDS NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS AND
INFORMATION...AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

RAS